BRussia's opening demand in Abu Dhabi is NATO rolled back to its 1997 positions before any ceasefire.
BThat is not a small demand. That is the alliance shrinking by decades.
BYour Anon Central posted on X that Russia wants European security concessions first, including that NATO retreat.
BAnd this is the first real US-Russia-Ukraine meeting since February.
BDay one was about security guarantees for Ukraine and Europe.
BSo the security guarantee is: Europe, wait outside.
BThat's not fair. European officials were in Abu Dhabi. Russia refused to let them into the main room.
BI know. And that is exactly what worries me. Russia sets the guest list, and we accept it.
BWe don't accept it. The US is pressing Moscow to bring Europe into future rounds.
BPressing is not the same as insisting. The first round sets the template.
BSo we should have walked out on day one and killed the whole thing?
BNo. But we should have said Europe is not a future favor, it is the table.
BYou can't say that if Putin's own precondition is no Europeans. He'd leave, and we'd get zero talks.
BMaybe zero talks with this format is better than talks that look like a NATO rollback auction.
BThat's where we disagree. I'd rather know his position than guess it.
BWe already know his position: NATO back to 1997, stop arming Ukraine, no more expansion.
BYes, a leaked wish list. Russia always opens at maximum. It's not a signed deal.
BBut it's now the headline. And Ukraine and Europe are on the outside of their own security negotiation.
BThe US asked Moscow for its own de-escalation steps. That's how you test if this is serious or theater.
BJared Kushner said Russia has to provide "different de-escalation and different proposals" for Europe to accept them.
BExactly. That is the White House saying we are not just swallowing Moscow's list.
BThen why is Europe not in the room to hear it?
BBecause Russia objected. And the choice was no talks or an ugly first day. I'll take the ugly first day.
BI'll give you that the alternative is no talks. But the optics are brutal.
BThe optics are brutal because the leak made them brutal. The actual US position is Europe has to be on board.
BAnd von der Leyen already said Europe won't discuss a new security architecture until the war ends.
BRight. So the order is: stop the war, then architecture. Ukraine said the same.
BThat's the right order. I just don't want the architecture sold while nobody's looking.
BThe Tectonic on X has four CFR experts calling it a seat for Europe, a trap, a dangerous farce, or the start of a framework.
BCould be a trap and a start at the same time.
BThat's the most honest read I've heard today.
BHere's the deeper problem. Russia's demand would hit Finland, which has been a NATO member for a few years now, having joined after the invasion.
BNow Moscow wants the alliance back before that. The document doesn't name Finland, but a return to 1997 would put that question in play.
BWhich is why even talking about 1997 as a baseline is dangerous. It treats NATO expansion as the original sin.
BThe US hasn't said 1997 is fine. They leaked Russia's ask, not our answer.
BThey may not have to say it. The conversation is now about how far NATO should roll back, not whether it should.
BThat's exactly my point. You want the conversation to be about Ukraine's security, not Putin's shopping list.
BThen the US should say, publicly and loudly, that NATO's 1997 position is not on the table. Period.
BMaybe they will. But diplomacy sometimes means not negotiating in public.
BAnd meanwhile Putin gets to dangle the talks and watch the West argue. One account on X already says he's got Trump, Witkoff, and Kushner jumping like trained dogs.
BOSINT Intuit posted that. It's an opinion, and it's unfair.
BIs it? Putin keeps the channel open, they keep coming back, and Europe stays in the hall.
BSending envoys isn't being played. It's having a direct line to the Kremlin when the alternative is none.
BOr it's letting him set the tempo. Every round becomes about what Russia will accept, not what Ukraine needs.
BThen you use the next round to prove it. You bring Europe in, you demand his de-escalation, and if he balks, you walk.
BI hope that's the plan. Because right now Abu Dhabi reads like a win for Moscow's framing.
BIt's an opening, not a win. Next round is where we see whether this is real.
BWashington is up next, where this same fight lands at home.