AThe Fed's own people are now saying the quiet part out loud: inflation is back, and they have work to do.
BThat's one way to put it. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee told CNBC the central bank 'has definitely got work to do' on inflation.
AAnd this is the guy who usually sounds like he'd rather do nothing. So when Goolsbee says that, you know the numbers were bad.
BOctober core CPI came in at 0.3 percent for the third straight month. Wall Street expected 0.2.
AThree months in a row above expectations. That's not noise. That's a trend.
BAnd here's the part that should worry everyone: the Fed's own governor, Christopher Waller, suggested a 0.3 core print means a half-point hike should be considered.
AA half-point hike. In December. After everyone spent the summer convinced the Fed was done.
BThis is what happens when you declare victory too early. The Fed cut rates, the market partied, and now inflation's back like a bad tenant.
AHold on. The Fed didn't cause this. Food, energy, shelter, hospital services, car insurance — all rising. That's not monetary policy, that's the real economy.
BOh, come on. The Fed kept rates too low for too long, then cut them again. You can't print trillions and act surprised when prices go up.
ABut the supply side is the problem. You can't hike your way out of a food shortage or an insurance crunch.
BYou can't, but you can stop making it worse. And right now, futures are reportedly pricing a December hike as a lock. The market's already bracing.
AAnd the ten-year Treasury touched around 5 percent. That's the real story for anyone with a mortgage or a car loan.
BFive percent on the ten-year. That's a number we haven't seen in a long time, and it means borrowing costs are going up everywhere.
ADallas Fed's Logan said rates are below 'modestly restrictive.' Translation: they think they're still too loose.
BSo the Fed's own people are telling us they need to tighten more. And Goolsbee, the dove, is saying they've got work to do.
AThe question is whether they have the stomach for it, because a market that's been pricing in cuts would be caught off guard.
BThey should have the stomach. The alternative is letting inflation run hot and hoping it cools on its own. That's how you get 1970s-style stagflation.
ABut here's the thing — the BLS reportedly didn't publish a year-over-year rate because the baseline is missing. The government shutdown broke the data.
BSo we're flying blind on the annual number, and the monthly numbers are hot. That's a terrible combination.
AAnd it means the Fed is making decisions with one hand tied behind its back. They don't have the full picture.
BThey have enough of a picture. Three months of 0.3 core. That's all you need to know.
ASpeaking of banks and big money, there's a story about the biggest names in finance getting into stablecoins.
BRight. Wu Blockchain posted that Goldman Sachs, Citi, Santander, and Deutsche Bank have committed money to something called Project Faro.
AA joint stablecoin venture. The big banks, the ones that spent years mocking crypto, are now building their own.
BThat's the part I love. The same institutions that called bitcoin a fraud are now racing to launch their own digital dollar.
ATo be fair, a bank-backed stablecoin is a very different animal from bitcoin. It's more like a digital version of a money market fund.
BBut the principle is the same. They see the technology works, they see the demand, and they want in. They just want to control it.
AAnd that's the real story here. The banks aren't fighting crypto anymore. They're co-opting it.
BThe report says it's according to Bloomberg, but we couldn't independently confirm the 270 million figure. So treat that as a claim, not a fact.
AStill, the direction is clear. The biggest banks in the world are building stablecoin infrastructure. That's a big deal.
BAnd it raises the question: what happens to the smaller stablecoins when JPMorgan and Goldman show up with their balance sheets?
AThat's the fight to watch. The banks have the trust and the regulatory cover. The crypto-native players have the users and the speed.
BMy money's on the banks, eventually. They have the lobbying power and the compliance infrastructure. The startups don't.
ABut the banks are slow. By the time they launch, the crypto guys will have moved on to the next thing.
BMaybe. But stablecoins are about trust. And when it comes to trust, the banks have a hundred-year head start.
ADifferent world entirely: there's a watchlist post from Anya on X flagging a bunch of speculative tickers.
BThe Children's Place, a biotech called Addex, some small caps. The usual premarket casino.
AOne of them, The Children's Place, is supposedly rebounding after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. That's a retailer that's been struggling for years.
BAnd that's the thing about these watchlist posts. They throw out a dozen tickers, and one of them might pop. But you're gambling, not investing.
AWe couldn't confirm most of the specific moves in that post. It's a mix of real and speculative, like most of these lists.
BThe lesson is the same as always: if you're chasing a ticker from a random watchlist post, you're late to the party.
AAnd the party usually ends badly. Chapter 11 rebounds are not a strategy.
BMeanwhile, there's a post from Jesse Cohen listing the big banks' CPI estimates. Goldman and Morgan Stanley said 0.1, everyone else said 0.2.
AAnd the actual number came in at 0.3. So even the most optimistic forecast was wrong.
BThat's the thing about inflation right now. The experts keep underestimating it. That's why the Fed is in this mess.
AWhen the smartest people in the room are consistently too low, you have to wonder if the models are broken.
BOr if they're just hoping. There's a lot of hoping in economics these days.
AAnd one more from CNBC: Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia CEO has renewed scrutiny on Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
BHis sons' firm has deep ties to the chipmaker. That's a story that's not going away.
AThe question is whether Lutnick's family connections influenced any export control decisions. That's the serious part.
BAnd it's a fair question. When the Commerce Secretary's family has financial ties to a company under export restrictions, people are going to ask.
ACNBC is reporting the scrutiny, not alleging wrongdoing. But the optics are bad, and optics matter in Washington.
BThey do. And with Nvidia in the middle of the AI boom, this is a story that touches everything from chips to China policy.
AThe Fed, the banks, the chipmakers — it's all connected. Money flows through all of it.
BAnd right now, the money is nervous. Inflation is hot, rates are going up, and the big players are repositioning.
AThat's the through line. Whether it's stablecoins or CPI or Nvidia, everyone's trying to figure out what comes next.
BAnd the Fed just told us: more pain before it gets better.