Bitcoin has fallen below $74,000, trading near $73,500–$74,700, after a hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI report showed consumer prices rose 0.4% in October. The cryptocurrency is down roughly 5% from its election-day close of $77,800, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have recovered above their election-day levels. Futures liquidations jumped 288% to $725 million. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have seen four straight days of net outflows totaling over $1.1 billion, though Tuesday's $95M outflow was the smallest of the stretch. Stablecoin supply has contracted by $14.2B over 30 days — the fastest since June 2022 — and Tether's USDT market cap has dropped $6.6B over 60 days, the largest such contraction on record.
The hot inflation data pushed traders to price in a 90% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar, which pressures non-yielding assets like bitcoin. Stablecoin redemptions signal capital leaving the crypto market, and the Coinbase Premium has been negative for 30 straight days, indicating weak U.S. demand. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index has dropped from 90 on October 13 to 20, matching the April 2025 reading that preceded a market bottom — though the firm warns it could also mark the start of a deeper correction.
Bitcoin is trading near $73,500–$74,700, below the $75K–$76K range claimed in the post. It fell below $74,000 after hot U.S. CPI data on November 10.
ABitcoin's not stabilizing at seventy-five. It's below seventy-four, and the reason is the same old story: inflation came in hot.
BCrypto Dad on X says it's hovering around seventy-five, seventy-six. I checked the tape. It's not.
ARight. Consumer prices rose four-tenths of a percent in October. That pushed traders to price in a ninety percent chance of a quarter-point Fed hike.
BAnd when the Fed might hike, the dollar and Treasury yields go up. Bitcoin, which pays you nothing, gets less attractive. Simple math.
AWhich is why the bulls are split on what comes next.
BSo the bulls say it's a normal correction. Michaël van de Poppe wants seventy-five thousand reclaimed before he's bullish again.
AMaybe. Let's see how the tape looks tomorrow.
BCome on, the S&P and Nasdaq have recovered above election-day levels. Bitcoin's down five percent from its close. This is crypto being crypto.
ABut the Coinbase Premium has been negative for thirty straight days. U.S. demand is weak. That's not nothing.
BWeak demand, sure. But Glassnode says two big wallet cohorts started accumulating. The smart money's nibbling.
AEvery other cohort is still selling. I'll wait for buyers to come back.
BFair. But the ETF outflows are slowing. Tuesday was reportedly ninety-five million, the smallest of the four-day stretch.
AStill over a billion in four days, reportedly. And that Neome account on X claimed five hundred thirty million in one day. Wrong.
BThey also said a three trillion dollar stock rout. I couldn't find that number anywhere.
AThe ITU stat about African women internet users? Also unverified. That account's throwing numbers around.
BWhich is why we check. But here's the thing: the macro storm isn't over, and that part of Crypto Dad's post is right.
AThe Fed's in a bind. Hot inflation, but the labor market's cooling. A hike now could break something.
BOr it could finally convince people the Fed's serious. The market's been fighting the Fed for two years.
AAnd losing, mostly. But a hike into a slowing economy? That's how you get a recession.
BOr how you avoid a worse one later. You can't let inflation expectations unanchor. That's the whole ballgame.
AI'm not saying cut. I'm saying the Fed's late again. They should have hiked in September.
BMaybe. But now they're stuck. And bitcoin's the canary.
ASpeaking of canaries, someone on Bluesky saw a guy in a bitcoin t-shirt in the big twenty-six. That's the energy we're working with.
BThe big twenty-six. Sounds like a highway. Or a prison block.
AEither way, the shirt's the signal. Retail's still here, just not buying.
BAnd another Bluesky account, USA Patriot seventy-six, just says 'And bitcoin. Don't forget bitcoin.'
AAs if anyone could. It's down, it's volatile, and it's still the only asset people argue about at dinner.
BThe do-nothing Congressman post? That's just noise. Skip it.
AAgreed. The QR code ad? Also noise. We don't do product plugs.
BSo the real story is the Fed. That's the durable piece.
AAnd the argument: is this a bottom or a deeper correction? CryptoQuant's Bull Score dropped from ninety to twenty.
BThat matches April twenty twenty-five, which preceded a bottom. But they warn it could also start a deeper slide.
AI'll take the under. No demand, no rally.
BI'll take the over. The big wallets are buying, and the ETF outflows are slowing.
AWe'll see. But if the Fed keeps tightening, the next leg is down.
BAnd if the Fed blinks, the next leg is up. That's the market.