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ZeroHedge's mystery millionaire surge

· Fact-checked before it aired. Unconfirmed claims from this segment are not shown.

The October US CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% expected, while core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month. The Labor Department did not publish a year-over-year figure because the 2025 government shutdown left no October 2025 comparison. Markets reacted: the dollar rallied, Treasuries sold off, and US stocks fell. Fed funds futures now price an 85% chance of a 25bps hike and 15% chance of a 50bps hike at the December 8-9 meeting.

Inflation is being driven by higher food and accommodation costs, the pass-through of elevated energy prices from the US-Israeli war with Iran, Trump administration tariffs, and resilient consumer spending and business investment.

October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, also slightly above forecasts.

The post mixes outdated data. After the October CPI report, CME FedWatch showed an 85% chance of a 25bps hike and 15% chance of 50bps — i.e., 100% probability of some hike, not 76.8%. The 3.7% CPI figure is the September annual rate, not October (October year-over-year was not published due to the 2025 shutdown).

October headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m and core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, matching the post. The jobs report was also stronger than expected.

Fact-check

VERIFIED TRUE

October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, also slightly above forecasts.

⚠️ BAD NEWS FOR RATE-CUT BULLS? US CPI just delivered a reality check! Both headline and core inflation beat expectations. 🇺🇸 Now the big question: Will the Fed keep rates higher for longer, or is another rate hike back on the table? 💵 Dollar bulls are watching. 🥇 Gold

Original post · Kabir Mehrotra (@Investwithkabir)

[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/)

VERIFIED MISLEADING

The post mixes outdated data. After the October CPI report, CME FedWatch showed an 85% chance of a 25bps hike and 15% chance of 50bps — i.e., 100% probability of some hike, not 76.8%. The 3.7% CPI figure is the September annual rate, not October (October year-over-year was not published due to the 2025 shutdown).

CME FedWatch odds for a December Fed rate hike jumped to 76.8% as October payrolls added 165,000 jobs, nearly triple forecasts, BLS data shows. With CPI at 3.7%, Fed officials warned further tightening is necessary, catching rate-cut positioning completely off guard. https://t.co

Original post · J. K. Buckley (@buckleyjk)

[cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/october-cpi-report-elevated-inflation/), [kiplinger.com](https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/10-cities-hardest

VERIFIED TRUE

October headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m and core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, matching the post. The jobs report was also stronger than expected.

🚨 THE FED MAY BE BACK IN HIKE MODE! Inflation is refusing to cool down. 🇺🇸 Latest CPI data: • Headline CPI: +0.4% MoM • Core CPI: +0.3% MoM And that's not the only concern. Last week's jobs report also came in stronger than expected, adding more pressure on the Fed. Strong htt

Original post · Alpha Markets (@Financialgoal77)

[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/)

Sources

What the hosts said

BZeroHedge just posted a headline that made me look twice.
B"America's Most Dangerous City Sees Stunning 931 Percent Surge In Millionaire Homeowners."
AWhat city?
BExactly. They don't name one.
AI looked. No source, no city, no data. The 931 percent is unverified.
BBut if it were true, it's a story about money flooding into the last place you'd expect.
AIt's a headline looking for a chart. Rich people don't move into a city without a reason.
BMaybe cheap housing and high yields? Some investors chase that.
AThen name the city. Otherwise it's a Rorschach test, not news.
BFine. But the phrase 'millionaire homeowners' is doing all the work.
AIt's engagement bait. The real signal is that people are nervous about cash and housing.
BAnd that nervousness is about to meet the Fed.
BSpeaking of numbers that need checking, J.K. Buckley posted that FedWatch odds for a December hike jumped sharply.
AThat's wrong. It mixes old data.
BGive me the real number.
AAfter the CPI, FedWatch showed a strong chance of a quarter-point hike and a smaller chance of a half-point.
AThat's a hundred percent for some hike, not 76.8.
BSo the market's more certain than the post says.
AAnd the 3.7 percent CPI in that post is September's annual rate, not October.
BOctober's year-over-year number wasn't published because the shutdown killed the comparison.
ARight. Bad math turns a hot take into just wrong.
BBut the underlying point stands: the Fed may hike.
AMore than may. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says 25 basis points would put credibility at risk.
BFifty basis points? That's a sledgehammer when the economy is already absorbing energy and tariff shocks.
ACore inflation ran 0.3 percent three straight months. That's not a blip.
BIt's food and shelter. Sticky, but also lagging.
AJosh Hirt at Vanguard says the energy pass-through is longer-lasting. They raised their core inflation forecast.
BAnd Chicago Fed's Goolsbee calls the data 'borderline disturbing.' That's not nothing.
BBut I think that tells me the Fed is panicking, not that the economy needs it.
AIf they don't hike now, inflation expectations unanchor. Then you're doing more later.
BGreat. Hike in December, cut in March when the war premium fades.
AMaybe. James McCann of Edward Jones says this report most likely seals the deal on a December hike.
BThe Fed's been behind before. I'm not convinced they should overdo it.
AThe market's pricing it. Whether you like it or not, that's the reality.
BI'll give you the numbers, but I hate the policy.
AYou can hate the policy and still respect the data.
BThen we're agreed it's a mess.
AA mess with a number attached. That's the show.

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