BTrump says the U.S. is taking billions in oil from Venezuela, and he expects hundreds of billions soon.
AHundreds of billions. That's a big number.
BHe posted it two minutes ago. The U.S. has been taking Venezuelan oil revenue since January.
AAnd the highest credible estimate for that revenue is about thirteen billion dollars. PolitiFact ran the numbers.
BSo hundreds of billions is... optimistic.
AIt's not credible. The Financial Times data puts it at thirteen billion. That's the whole pot.
BBut the direction is real. The U.S. is actually collecting that money now.
ASure, thirteen billion is real money. But saying hundreds of billions is like calling a puddle an ocean.
BFair. But you know why he says it. It's a negotiating posture.
AIt's a number with no basis. And markets hate numbers with no basis.
BSpeaking of numbers with no basis—there's a jobs report flying around X this morning.
AOctober payrolls reportedly came in well above expectations.
BJoel Pollak posted about GDP growth and unemployment figures.
AI can't confirm those figures. The official report isn't out yet, or at least I haven't seen it.
BBut if it's true, that's a big number.
AIf it's true. Right now it's a claim from a few accounts. No official source.
BPollak also says inflation is higher than it should be, and he blames tariffs and war plus a Biden hangover.
AThat's his opinion. The growth and unemployment numbers are the part I'd want to verify.
BAnd one reply from Diana Smith says strong growth matters, but keeping inflation under control is essential.
AThat's the tension. If wages are rising, the Fed's not cutting rates anytime soon.
BAnd Bank of America is reportedly warning the Fed could raise rates in December.
AThat's from a Telegram channel. I can't confirm BofA actually said that.
BBut it fits the pattern. Hot CPI, hot jobs, the Fed's hands are tied.
AIf the jobs number is real, the Fed is not cutting. They might even hike. That's the story.
BAnd that would hit everything—stocks, crypto, housing.
AWhich brings us to the other side of the world. Russia's central bank says exchanges can start crypto trading November 17th.
BThat's also unconfirmed, but it's a big shift if true. Russia has been hostile to crypto for years.
AThey're looking for ways around sanctions. Crypto is one of them.
BAnd Deutsche Bank is supposedly rolling out crypto custody services.
AGermany's largest bank. That would be a huge institutional step.
BBut again, unconfirmed. The Telegram channels are running hot today.
AAnd OKX with the NYSE's parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, launching a 24/7 tokenized securities exchange on November 23rd.
BThat one's interesting because ICE is a real, regulated exchange operator.
AIf that's real, it's a bridge between traditional finance and crypto. But I can't confirm it.
BSo we've got a lot of smoke today. Jobs, rates, crypto, Venezuela.
AThe Venezuela number is the one I can actually fact-check. And it's wrong.
BHundreds of billions is wrong. Thirteen billion is the real number.
AAnd that's still a lot of oil money. But it's not hundreds of billions.
BMeanwhile, the Kennedy family is suing to block Trump's triumphal arch at Arlington.
ANine Kennedy family members. They say a 250-foot gilded arch would block sightlines to the Kennedy gravesites.
BA 250-foot gilded arch at Arlington National Cemetery. That's a statement.
AThe Guardian has the story. It's a real lawsuit.
BI get why the Kennedys are upset. Arlington is hallowed ground.
ABut a triumphal arch? That's a Roman emperor move.
BTrump's always wanted big monuments. This one's literally gilded.
AThe lawsuit says it would obstruct the view to JFK's grave. That's a legitimate concern.
BIt's also a fight between two American dynasties. The Kennedys versus Trump.
AAnd it's about who gets to define the landscape of national memory.
BThat's a heavy one for a Wednesday lunch.
ABut it's the kind of story that shows how money and power shape everything, even cemeteries.
BAlright, let's get back to the markets. The jobs report is the big one today.
AIf the payroll number is real, the Fed is stuck. They can't cut with wages rising.
BAnd if BofA is right about a 50 basis point hike, that's a shock to the system.
AI'd say wait for the official numbers before reading anything into the Telegram posts.
BBut the market's already moving on the rumor. That's the game.
AThe game is dangerous when the numbers are unverified.
BSpeaking of dangerous, Russia's crypto move could be a sanctions workaround.
AIf it's real, it's a big deal. Any country under heavy sanctions would want a way around the dollar system.
BCrypto gives them a way to move money without the dollar system.
AThat's exactly why Washington has watched crypto exchanges so closely.
BAnd now their central bank is opening the door. That's a policy reversal.
AIf confirmed, it's a story about the global financial order shifting.
BAnd Deutsche Bank getting into custody is the other side of that coin.
ATraditional banks are realizing they can't ignore crypto anymore.
BBut we need confirmation. Right now it's all Telegram chatter.
AThe only thing I can confirm today is that Trump's Venezuela number is wildly inflated.
BAnd that the Kennedys are suing over a gilded arch.
ATwo confirmed stories, a pile of rumors, and a market waiting for the jobs report.
BThat's Money Lunch on a Wednesday.