MTwelve thousand humanoid robots a year. That's the number Finance Spot on X is pushing tonight.
CYou sound like you already checked it.
MI did. The post says Tesla Optimus, Figure, 1X, Boston Dynamics are all ramping production.
CFigure's BotQ line is rated for twelve thousand units a year. That's a real factory.
MRated for. Actual output has been slower, and Tesla's ramp is early—not Gen 3.
CWho cares what they call it? They're building the line. That's the hard part.
MThe hard part is shipping. 1X has a factory and open orders, but no verified paying customer yet.
COh, come on. You're moving the goalposts. Early production is always messy.
MI'm not saying it won't happen. I'm saying the post makes it sound done.
CBoston Dynamics is delivering Atlas to Hyundai and Google DeepMind right now. That's shipping.
MCorrect. One of the four is real. The other three are still PowerPoint.
CPowerPoint with a factory behind it. That's not nothing.
MIt's ambition. Ambition is fine—just don't put a production number on it yet.
CIn robotics, ambition usually comes with a twelve-thousand-unit slide.
MAnd then the slide gets corrected six months later.
CLike every new industry. I'd rather watch it than write it off.
MSpoken like an engineer. I'd rather wait for a delivery receipt.
CYou keep moving the bar. First it was no factory, now it's no delivery.
MBecause a factory without a customer is just a warehouse with robots in it.
CFair, Atlas is the one I'd count first.
MExactly. Boston Dynamics ships, and that's the bar the others haven't cleared.
CTesla has a ramp, Figure has BotQ, and 1X has a running factory.
MThree factories, one delivery. That's a hype cycle, not a sector.
CHype cycles build the capital that makes the deliveries happen!
MAnd they also make investors forget the word unverified.
CThen let the market sort that out. I'm just saying the hardware is further along than you think.
MMaybe, but the post made it sound like Tesla's ramp and Figure's production capacity were settled facts. They're not.
CSpeaking of the parts that make it work, Greg on X says don't sleep on LG Innotek.
MThe iPhone camera supplier?
CSame one. He says a humanoid needs many cameras and 3D sensors.
MThat's a picks-and-shovels pitch. It makes sense until you remember robot hands are not phone glass.
CNo, but the optics are similar. Mass production is their thing.
MFor a device you keep in your pocket. Robots drop things, grip hard, get dirty.
CSo you're saying LG can't adapt?
MI'm saying it's not automatic. He's pitching an investment thesis.
CHe's a humanoid investor. Of course he likes the story.
MAt least he's transparent about it.
CI'll give him this: the camera module is the part everyone forgets until the robot can't see.
MThen they'll call it a ramp.
CAnd on the hands, Robotics biz on X posted Musk explaining why robot hands are, his words, shockingly difficult.
MThat I actually agree with. Precision and force in the same motion.
CPlus touch sensors that have to survive wear, and skin designed to be replaced.
MWhich is exactly why I don't call a prototype a production ramp.
CYou're going to die on this hill.
MI'm not dying. I'm fact-checking.