Spot gold rose about 3% to around $4,046 per ounce on Nov. 4, while silver rose roughly 4.4% to near $52. Platinum and palladium also rallied. The moves came after Democrats were projected to win control of both the House and Senate, pushing the U.S. dollar lower and Treasury yields down.
The midterm result weakened the dollar, making dollar-priced metals cheaper for foreign buyers, and falling yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Investors also cited fiscal-brinkmanship risk and possible AI-regulation drags on growth. However, some analysts caution that election effects are usually short-term and that Federal Reserve policy and upcoming jobs data matter more for the next move.
Spot gold rose about 3% to roughly $4,046/oz and silver rose about 4.4% to around $52 after Democrats were projected to win control of the House and Senate; the dollar fell and Treasury yields dropped. The “+$1 trillion market cap” figure is not directly confirmed but is roughly consistent with the size of the gold/silver moves.
Treasury yields fell Tuesday night as investors bought bonds amid an equity-futures sell-off following big Democratic midterm wins, according to CNBC.
BGood morning, it's Wednesday, and gold just had a wild night.
AGold and silver surged after Democrats took control of the House and Senate. The Kobeissi Letter says the metals added a combined trillion dollars in market cap.
BGold up about 3 percent to 4,046 dollars an ounce, silver up 4.4 percent to 52. The trillion is their estimate, but the direction is clear.
AThe dollar fell and Treasury yields dropped, so investors moved into safety. Platinum and palladium rallied too.
BBut let's not oversell the election. Rhona O'Connell at StoneX says a Democratic sweep supports gold through lower rates and a softer dollar, but a hawkish Fed and the Iran conflict are competing forces.
AHamad Hussain at Capital Economics agrees fiscal concerns are boosting metals, but says the Fed likely staying hawkish limits further gains.
BSo the rally has legs, but it's not a one-way bet.
ADaniela Hathorn at Capital.com warns that when monetary policy is restrictive, gold can be sold off in a sharp equity decline, not bought.
BThat's the risk—if stocks fall hard, people sometimes sell gold to cover margin calls.
AChristopher Vecchio at Tastylive says a sweep could still be good for gold into 2027 if political uncertainty slows the economy.
BSo metals up this morning, but the next jobs report and Fed moves matter more than the election.
AJames Stanley replied, "Gold has done more in one morning than my pension has since 2019."
BThat's the kind of morning it's been for a lot of people.
ADifferent story: Polymarket is projecting a major upset in Los Angeles.
BNithya Raman, a progressive city councilmember, at 99 percent to beat incumbent Mayor Karen Bass.
ABut that's a prediction market, not an official count. No county registrar has called it.
BDoes 99 percent mean it's done, or just that bettors piled in?
AIt means heavy betting, but official results could differ. Bass has only been in office a couple of years.
BIf Raman wins, it would be a sharp turn for LA politics. We'll wait for actual votes.
AAnd one serious item: The New York Times is reporting that a growing number of Iranian officials and clerics are calling for the country to develop nuclear weapons.
BThat's via Polymarket, quoting the Times. The concern is another conflict with the US and Iran.
ANo independent confirmation in our notes yet, but if the report holds, it's a significant shift in rhetoric.
BIt comes as tensions remain high in the region. We'll follow it.
AAnd the UK's AI minister is reportedly warning the country is "extremely likely" to suffer a serious cyberattack soon and isn't prepared.
BThat's also from Polymarket, and we haven't seen independent confirmation from a news outlet.
AIf true, it's a stark warning from a sitting minister. Cyber defenses have been under scrutiny.
BUntil it's confirmed, treat it as a claim, not a fact.
AThat's the morning brief for Wednesday.