BTrump just broke his silence. The Kobeissi Letter posted on X the Truth Social quote: "I wasn't on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!"
BUnusual Whales posted on X the same screenshot seconds later.
BThe replies under Kobeissi's post are split. One says good riddance. Another blames him for the war, tariffs, all of it.
AThat's anger, not analysis.
BAnger is real.
AA landslide. The counterfactual always wins.
BNo, come on, the pattern holds. Presidents get hammered in midterms.
AHammered is not landslide. The party in power loses seats every cycle.
BHe didn't say Republicans would win. He said HE would have won.
AThat's even more convenient.
BWhy? His approval with the base is higher than any elected Republican.
AAnd his disapproval with independents is why Republicans are projected to lose the House.
BSo you agree he changes the map.
AHe changes the map. Whether he changes it enough for a landslide? No.
BYou're hung up on the word landslide.
AI'm hung up on the evidence.
BThe evidence is the House is projected to flip. You can't tell me he loses that with him on the ballot.
AI can tell you no one knows.
BThat's weak.
AIt's honest. You want certainty, go to Polymarket.
BSpeaking of which—
BPolymarket posted on X that Democrats are now at 69 percent for the 2028 presidential election. All-time high.
AA market on a race three years away. I can't verify that exact number.
BMarkets are forward-looking. They're pricing in what just happened.
AThey're pricing in a mood. The direction is clear; the odds are a guess.
BIt's not just direction. Vacancies matter.
AWho's running? You can't price a race without a candidate.
BYou price the party. Same as you price the Fed before a meeting.
AThe Fed meets every six weeks. 2028 is three years out.
BFine. It's a sentiment gauge.
AThen call it a sentiment gauge, not an all-time high headline.
BThe exchange posted the number, Adam.
AI'm not arguing with the post, I'm arguing with the weight.
BAnd the weight is that the market thinks tonight hurt Republicans badly.
AIt did. But a betting market on an election without candidates is noise.
BAll markets are noise until the trade.
AThat's not a quote, it's a bumper sticker.
BFine. I'll put it on a bumper sticker.
AHere's one making the rounds. Rocket Terminal on X claims BlackRock's Larry Fink warned of a global recession tied to Iran.
BI saw that. BlackRock's eleven trillion. That would be everywhere.
AIt isn't. I found no independent report.
BSo someone's farming engagement off election anxiety.
ACorrect. Throw it out.
BAlready gone.
AThe market's got enough real worries tonight.