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Texas Early Vote Stuns Observers

Nov 4, 2026, 2:46 AM UTC · Fact-checked before it aired. Unconfirmed claims from this segment are not shown.

In Texas's 2026 U.S. Senate race, early returns showed Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, especially in North Texas suburbs and urban metros. More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, 40.5% of registered voters, the highest midterm early-turnout rate on record in modern Texas. The race had not been called.

Early voting was heavily urban/suburban, where Talarico was strong; Republicans were expected to perform better among Election Day voters. The race was the most expensive U.S. Senate contest in American history and could help decide Senate control.

Early Texas returns showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, with strong urban/suburban showings; the race had not been officially called.

Brianna Long, 21, was killed by gunfire while closing The Pier bar in Remerton, Georgia, on Oct. 29, 2023; a co-worker was injured. Two men were charged with murder in 2025; a trial timeline isn't clear.

This appears to describe Noor Salman, who was charged with aiding and abetting the Pulse nightclub shooting and was acquitted in 2018; prosecutors relied partly on her FBI statements, but the defense challenged them and the jury acquitted her.

Ron Jeremy was charged with 34 counts, including 12 counts of rape, involving 21 women; in 2023 he was ruled mentally incompetent to stand trial and placed in a psychiatric facility.

Larry Householder, former Ohio House Speaker, was convicted of racketeering in 2023 and sentenced to 20 years in prison; he has sought a presidential pardon/clemency.

Fact-check

VERIFIED TRUE

Early Texas returns showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, with strong urban/suburban showings; the race had not been officially called.

Democrats held strong leads in early voting results for several Texas bellwether counties, stunning some longtime political observers. https://t.co/iLUKd68PH9
Original post · The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ)

[texastribune.org](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-ken-paxton-james-talarico-us-senate-elections-2026/) NAMES: James Talarico = Democratic Texas s

VERIFIED TRUE

3 years ago today. Still no trial? Brianna Long, 21, was a senior studying dental hygiene at Valdosta State. 2:30am, Oct. 29, 2023, she was closing The Pier bar in Remerton, GA. A gunfight broke out outside. Bullets tore through the bar and killed her. A co-worker was also https:
Original post · Kentucky Girl (@Kentuckygirl1)

[gbi.georgia.gov](https://gbi.georgia.gov/press-releases/2025-02-25/gbi-investigates-death-21-year-old-woman-remerton-ga), [cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com

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Federal prosecutors charged her with aiding and abetting one of the worst mass shootings in American history, pointing to a handwritten FBI confession claiming she scouted the target with her husband—only for cell tower forensics to blow the government's case wide open, ending in
Original post · sportified (@sportified25)

AP News NAMES: Noor Salman = widow of Pulse nightclub shooter Omar Mateen.

VERIFIED TRUE

Ron Jeremy was charged with 34 counts, including 12 counts of rape, involving 21 women; in 2023 he was ruled mentally incompetent to stand trial and placed in a psychiatric facility.

Ron Jeremy joked on national TV that he had slept with 3,000 to 4,000 women. Then 21 women went to the police and said he had sexually assaulted them. He was charged with 34 counts, including 12 counts of rape, and faced the rest of his life in prison. He will almost certainly ht
Original post · Hank (@hankqxbt)

AP News

VERIFIED TRUE

Larry Householder, former Ohio House Speaker, was convicted of racketeering in 2023 and sentenced to 20 years in prison; he has sought a presidential pardon/clemency.

If your name is “Householder”… Puppets gonna puppet. Arrest #22 SUBJECT FILE: HOUSEHOLDER, LARRY CRIMINAL STATUS: CONVICTED OF RACKETEERING — SERVING 20 YEARS — SEEKING A TRUMP PARDON Larry Householder is the ultimate pay-to-play speaker — to allies, a rural Ohio https://t.co/yph
Original post · The Joker Police (Parody) (@parodyjokerpd)

AP News / Ohio Capital Journal NAMES: Larry Householder = former Republican speaker of the Ohio House convicted in a $60 million bribery/racketeering scheme.

Sources

What the hosts said

BTexas early voting just broke the modern record—and the early numbers are shaking people.

BThe Wall Street Journal just posted it: Democrats held strong leads in several Texas bellwether counties.

BTheir words: “stunning some longtime political observers.”

BThat wording's from the Journal, not a campaign.

BAnd this is the most expensive U.S. Senate race in American history.

BWhich is exactly why nobody should call it from early returns.

BBut those early returns are real. Talarico is ahead in counties that usually signal where Texas is going.

BBellwether counties can be early-vote mirages. We've seen this before.

BNo, no—look at the turnout. Almost forty-one percent of registered Texans voted before today.

BSeven point seven million people. That's the highest midterm early-turnout rate in modern Texas history.

BThat's not a mirage, Bella. That's people voting in huge numbers, especially in the suburbs.

BAnd Election Day in Texas still leans Republican. Rural counties haven't had their Election Day surge yet.

BOh, come on. Those suburban counties are where Paxton had to run up the score. If he's losing them early, he's in trouble.

BHe might be. But the AP hasn't called the race. That's not opinion—that's fact.

BI'm not calling the race. I'm saying it's a serious warning sign for Paxton.

BI can live with warning sign. But there's a post going around saying Kalshi gives Talarico a ninety-nine percent chance.

BThat's a prediction market, not an election result.

BWe couldn't confirm that ninety-nine percent figure. Kalshi is a trading platform, and it hasn't called anything.

BPrediction markets are useful, but they're not vote totals.

BEven so, the Journal saying “stunning” is not nothing. That's a newsroom, not a gambler.

BAgreed. But the only number that matters is the final vote, and that's hours away.

BDifferent kind of legal trouble: a former Ohio House Speaker serving twenty years for racketeering is asking for a Trump pardon.

BThat's Larry Householder. He was convicted in a sixty-million-dollar bribery scheme.

BA parody account on X put it bluntly: “puppets gonna puppet.”

BThe real story isn't the parody. He has actually sought clemency.

BGreat. Public corruption, and the ask is a get-out-of-prison card from the president.

BPresidents do have the pardon power. It exists for a reason, even in bad cases.

BBut this is a jury conviction, not a technicality. He sold his office.

BI'm not defending him. I'm saying the pardon power shouldn't be judged by the worst example.

BIf he gets one, it tells every statehouse crook that the price of getting caught is just waiting for a friendly president.

BThat's the argument against, and it's strong. I don't think he deserves one, but I wouldn't burn the power because of him.

BFair. I'd just say don't use it here.

BThen we don't actually disagree much.

BThree years ago tonight, Brianna Long was shot and killed while closing a bar in south Georgia.

BShe was twenty-one, studying dental hygiene. A gunfight broke out outside.

BThe post going around asks, “Still no trial?” That's not exactly right.

BRight. Two men were charged this year, but there's no trial date yet.

BSo her family is still waiting. That's a long time.

BIt is. Delay like that feels like another injury.

BWe'll keep an eye on whether a court sets a date.

Cite this story as https://oncast.fm/story/1793760393461-news-segment-texas-early-vote-stuns-observers. Fact-check by Oncast. Cite the original sources above too.

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