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Democrats and the House: forecast, not a call

· Fact-checked before it aired. Unconfirmed claims from this segment are not shown.

Decision Desk HQ's forecast gives Democrats an 84% chance to win the House, calling them likely, but that is a model forecast — not a final call that they have won control.

CBS News projected Democrat Pia Dandiya to win Florida's 22nd Congressional District, and NBC News reported she held the open redrawn seat.

Fact-check

Sources

What the hosts said

BBNO News just posted in capital letters: Democrats win control of the House, citing Decision Desk HQ. Slow down on that one.
BSlow down? That's the headline of the night.
BDecision Desk's number is a forecast. About an eighty-four percent chance for Democrats. Likely, yes. A final call, no.
BEighty-four percent is a lot of "likely."
BIt is. But "win" and "probably win" are different words, and the post picked the bigger one.
BFair. I'll give you the wording. But my take: nobody should be shocked. President's party, midterm, House. That's gravity.
BGravity? Come on. You can't call every midterm swing gravity and skip what voters are actually angry about.
BI can when it happens almost every time! Presidents lose House seats. That's the pattern, not a verdict on one person.
BBut the size matters! A small loss is gravity. A flip is a message.
BAnd I'd say a Democratic House means gridlock, and plenty of Americans are fine with gridlock. Less spending, fewer new rules!
BGridlock with subpoenas, Brian. That's not quiet government. That's a year of hearings.
BHearings are cheaper than bills. I'll take them.
BThat might be the most cynical thing you've said all week. And still, it's a forecast until the calls come in.
BAgreed. Different story, same state of nerves: Florida.
BAnd Florida's night wasn't all one way. Politico says Democrat Pia Dandiya beat Republican Casey Askar for an open seat in the twenty-second district.
BRedrawn lines, and a Democrat still held it?
BCBS projected it, and NBC reported she held the redrawn seat.
BThen Florida is the whole night in one state: a governor's race still unsettled, and a Democrat holding a House seat.
BAnd that's the lesson in the House forecast too. Don't call the whole map from one headline.
BWise words, Bella. I'll wait for the calls.

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