BThe Wall Street Journal just posted a fresh look at New York's three-year war on short-term rentals, and the headline number is already in dispute.
BThree years already? That crackdown was supposed to be the model other cities copied.
BThe Journal says listings dropped more than ninety percent across the five boroughs. But that number comes from Airbnb itself.
BAirbnb's own number. What a reliable source on that topic.
BIndependent analysts put it closer to eighty percent. Still a cliff, but not the number the Journal quoted.
BAnd the hangers-on they're writing about? What are they actually doing?
BTrading reservation nights like concert tickets. Subletting through shell listings. Running everything through WhatsApp groups.
BThe black market never sleeps.
BOnly about thirty-five hundred hosts have legal registrations. In a city of eight million people.
BAnd how many hotel rooms got built in those three years? Because tourists don't vanish just because the Airbnb app stops working.
BThis is the argument you always make. The point was housing. Landlords were running entire buildings as unregulated hotels.
BAnd now apartments sit empty because owners are scared of fines, while hotel prices are through the roof. Who actually won?
BThe people who needed homes. That was the trade. You can't complain about housing costs and then complain the crackdown worked.
BI'm not saying it didn't work. I'm saying the Journal's own reporting shows it created a black market. Eighty percent drop and the market just went underground.
BThe workarounds are real, fine. But the core thing—keeping residential buildings residential—that part held.
BHeld for now. Regulate hard enough and you just get smarter rule-breakers.
BSpeaking of rule-breakers and the rest of the world—Brian, you were looking at something from the progressive side tonight.
BMeidasTouch. Ben Meiselas and his network. Their claim—world leaders are outmaneuvering the Trump administration. Cuba embargo vote, Russia, Canada-Europe-China ties. Their conclusion: America is completely isolated.
BLet's actually take that apart, because they're pointing at real events.
BThe UN vote on Cuba? It's passed against us every year since 1992. It's theater. Nothing changes on the ground.
BBut theater is exactly the point when you're talking about isolation. The world publicly votes that they reject your policy. Every single year. That's not nothing.
BIt is nothing! The vote is symbolic. Cuba still can't do real trade with us. The vote has zero legal force.
BWhat about Canada, Europe, China? That triangle is real. Trade deals, investment, technology partnerships.
BThat part's real. Canada has been chasing China trade since I was in college. That's not new.
BRight, but the speed changed. When Washington is unpredictable, allies diversify faster. That's the pattern MeidasTouch is describing.
BHow much is actually new versus just the latest chapter of the same old story? The US and Europe have argued about Russia and trade since NATO was founded.
BCuba vote, Russia's moves, Canada-China deals. Dismiss each one individually, but together in the same month, it signals where the world is heading.
BI'll give you this—the rest of the world is definitely making other plans. But 'completely isolated'? Overstatement. Everyone still trades in dollars. Nobody's leaving NATO.
BFair enough on NATO. But they're hedging, and that's exactly what hedging looks like.
BHere's my problem. MeidasTouch isn't reporting to inform you. They're spinning to score points. The facts are real, but 'Trump leaves the US completely isolated'—that framing is designed to make you feel something. Not think something.
BThey have an agenda, fair. But the agenda doesn't change the underlying data. The UN voted against us again. Canada signed energy deals with China. Those are facts.
BAnd the Biden years were pure global harmony? France didn't recall its ambassador over a submarine deal?
BThat's fair. This isolation narrative ignores that America has been alienating allies for years, across administrations. But slapping tariffs on Canada while threatening to pull out of commitments—that accelerates the timeline.
BAccelerates the timeline. Fine. But the endgame is still a long way off, and 'completely isolated' is still a fantasy. We run the monetary system. That's the world's anchor.
BThat's the debate. The world is hedging, nobody's cutting ties. But the direction of travel matters. Thanks for listening—more after this.