BA Ukrainian arms maker just announced it no longer needs SpaceX to hit deep into Russia.
BThat's a big claim. Fire Point, right?
BReuters is reporting that Fire Point's CEO, Iryna Terekh, says they found ways to carry out long-range strikes without SpaceX satellite services.
BFound ways? That's vague. How much of their capability are we talking?
BHere's the reality check. The workaround covers only 15 to 20 percent of what full Starlink access over Russia would allow.
BSo they've solved maybe a fifth of the problem. Still better than nothing, but not exactly cutting the cord.
BIt's not by choice. Their Starlink and Starshield links were slowed for 10 days back in October.
BWhy? What triggered that?
BPresident Trump was pressuring Kyiv to stop hitting Russian oil refineries. Around the same time, Elon Musk accused Ukraine of violating civilian Starlink terms.
BAnd Kyiv says they only use Starshield, the military version, for offensive missions. They deny breaking any agreement.
BRight. But the point is, when your battlefield navigation depends on a private company, you're at the mercy of its owner's politics.
BSo isn't this a good thing? Ukraine finally building redundancy so they're not held hostage?
BIt's good in the long run, but short term, losing Starlink's speed and precision is dangerous. Russian air defenses adapt fast.
BThey're not losing everything. They have their own ballistic missiles now. Fire Point says the FP-7 is already in combat, and the FP-9 with an 800 kilometer range is almost ready.
B"Very close" is what the CEO said. But even if it works, it's still a fraction of the targeting data Starlink gave them for drone swarms and artillery.
BSo what's the alternative? Keep depending on a network that can be throttled whenever Washington or Musk gets nervous? That's a losing strategy.
BNo, the losing strategy is thinking a private company owes you a war. If you want independence, you pay for it with time and money Ukraine doesn't have right now.
BYou really think a guarantee would hold? We saw what happened in October. The tech is too valuable to be left to one billionaire's mood.
BI'll give you that. But I also think Ukraine is rushing this because they're scared, and scared armies make mistakes. The 800 kilometer missile hasn't been shown tested in numbers yet.
BMaybe. But if I'm Zelensky, I'd rather have a 15 percent workaround than zero. And they're building their own satellite network for the future.
BThat's the long game. For now, it's a reminder that wars in 2026 run on orbital infrastructure, and that infrastructure has a very small number of owners.
BSpeaking of which, China is flexing its coast guard east of Taiwan. State media says patrols just happened.
BCCTV is reporting it, but no independent confirmation yet. What's the significance?
BIt's classic Beijing behavior. Routine patrols that are never routine in intent. Taiwan's coast guard didn't immediately respond.
BIs this an escalation from previous patrols?
BNot necessarily new in frequency, but every time it happens, it sends a message: we can project power there without firing a shot.
BAnd what does that achieve? The US still has ships in the area.
BIt normalizes Chinese presence. Over time, Taiwan's leaders and the world stop treating it as an emergency. That's the goal.
BSo it's slow-motion aggression. Not great.
BAgreed. And it fits the pattern of the last few years: gray-zone tactics that don't cross the threshold of war.
BWe'll keep watching this one. If the patrol numbers rise, that's a signal.