BAnthropic's IPO is already generating misinformation before the roadshow even starts. A post from Exec Sum on X claims Morgan Stanley has the lead left underwriter role.
AThat's wrong. Goldman Sachs is lead left. Morgan Stanley is the stabilization agent. Easy to mix up, but it matters.
BAnd the post also left off Cantor Fitzgerald, Capital One Securities, and Macquarie. So the full syndicate is even bigger than that list.
AIt's a huge syndicate. Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Citi, Barclays, Wells, BofA, Deutsche, RBC, UBS, BMO, BNP, Credit Agricole, Jefferies, Mizuho, MUFG, SG, TD, BTIG. Every major bank wants a piece.
BThis is the biggest AI company going public. Anthropic, the company behind Claude. Everyone wants in on the fees.
AEveryone wants the fees, Bill. But does anyone want the risk? You see the syndicate as proof of demand. I see it as proof of desperation.
BDesperation? Oh, come on. A company with real revenue, real customers, leading AI models. This is exactly what public markets need.
AReal revenue, yes. Real profits? No. The S-1 reportedly shows massive losses, and the race for compute is only getting more expensive. That's not a recipe for a safe IPO.
BEvery big tech IPO was a money-loser at some point. Amazon. Tesla. You can't judge Anthropic by last quarter's losses.
AAmazon and Tesla had a path to profitability that didn't require building a new data center every month. Anthropic is burning billions on compute, and the competition from OpenAI and Google isn't slowing down.
BSo what, we just don't invest in AI innovation? That's absurd. The market will price the risk. And if Goldman is lead left, they think there's enough demand.
AGoldman also led WeWork's IPO until it fell apart. Lead left doesn't mean safe. It means they got the mandate.
BThat's a cheap shot, Adam. This is different. Anthropic has a product people actually use.
APeople use free chatbots. The question is whether enterprises will pay enough to justify a valuation that could be in the hundreds of billions.
BLook at the demand: eighteen banks in the syndicate. That's not nothing.
AIt's a fee grab. They'll take their cut and move on. The retail investor is the one holding the bag if this goes south.
BYou're being too cynical. The IPO is a signal that the AI economy is maturing. We need public companies building this infrastructure.
AWe need public companies that are transparent about their risks. And the biggest risk is that the cost of compute keeps rising while the price of AI services keeps falling.
BOkay, but that's the bet. Some people will make it, some won't. That's the market.
AAnd my point is that the syndicate doesn't tell you which side is right. It just tells you a lot of banks want to get paid.
BSo you don't think retail should touch this?
AI think the risk factors tell you more than the underwriter list. Whether that's a call on the stock is for people with their own advisers.
BOf course not. But you have to admit, seeing eighteen banks line up for a company that could be worth a trillion dollars is a sign the market is entering a new phase.
AOr a sign the top is near. We'll see.
BOne more thing on this: the post got the lead left wrong, which tells you how fast information moves in these IPO cycles.
AExactly. And as for the syndicate, it's not just size—it's the mix. Cantor, Capital One, Macquarie. These aren't the usual bulge bracket names. That's interesting.
BThat suggests they want a broad distribution, maybe more retail access than a typical tech IPO.
AOr more places to spread the risk. Either way, the roadshow will tell us a lot. The pricing, the demand, the range.
BAnd we'll be watching. For now, the correction is just as interesting as the hype.