Oncast Money · Market Open

Eisenkot odds surge in Israel market

· Fact-checked before it aired. Unconfirmed claims from this segment are not shown.

Polymarket traders were pricing Gadi Eisenkot's odds at about 63–64% on election morning, up from roughly 56% a day earlier. But that is a prediction-market price, not a poll or a real-world probability; polls suggest a coalition deadlock, and researchers warn the market is vulnerable to manipulation by a few large accounts.

Fact-check

VERIFIED MISLEADING

Polymarket traders were pricing Gadi Eisenkot's odds at about 63–64% on election morning, up from roughly 56% a day earlier. But that is a prediction-market price, not a poll or a real-world probability; polls suggest a coalition deadlock, and researchers warn the market is vulnerable to manipulation by a few large accounts.

BREAKING: Centrist former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot soars in odds of becoming Israel's next prime minister as Israelis head to the polls. 64% chance he ousts Netanyahu. 🔗 https://t.co/RQ5LxfwiNk https://t.co/YiFrvw4QnO

Original post · @Polymarket

[polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election?tid=682721), [mako.co.il](https://www.mako.c

Sources

What the hosts said

AMarket Open. Polymarket posted on X: a former Israeli general is now the favorite to oust Netanyahu.
BGadi Eisenkot, ex-IDF chief, jumped from about fifty-six to sixty-four percent on Polymarket this morning.
AThat's what the market says. It's not a poll, and it's not a real probability.
BMarkets put real money on outcomes. They're often smarter than surveys.
AThey can also be moved by a few big accounts. Researchers warn this exact market is vulnerable to manipulation.
BSo the sixty-four percent is meaningless?
AI'm saying it's a price, not a prophecy. Real polls show coalition deadlock, no clear winner.
BThe move itself is the story. Traders see something.
AOne trader on X put it well: the result may end up 'other' because no one forms a coalition.
BRight. Sixty-four percent in a betting market doesn't guarantee a government.
BSame prediction market, another shocker: Polymarket also posted that General Motors is leaving the New York Stock Exchange after 115 years.
AThat would be huge. I can't find any reliable reporting on it.
BNeither can I. No filing, no exchange statement. One unconfirmed post right now.
AWe'll watch it. If true, it changes a lot; if not, it's just noise.
BMarket Open, and we'll separate signal from noise all session.

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