Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled over the past year. Europe/CIS jet fuel averaged $195.95/bbl in the week ending Oct. 2, more than double the year-earlier level, according to IATA data cited by [euronews.com](https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/08/ryanair-ceo-sees-no-european-jet-fuel-shortages-into-summer-2027). Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary says European airlines face an “enormous cost challenge” into 2027 as fuel hedging rolls off; he predicts fares could rise 10–20%, calling it the “biggest increase in airfares in history,” with bankruptcies and takeovers reducing seat capacity.
The Iran war and attacks on refineries have disrupted jet fuel supply and pushed jet fuel's premium over Brent crude to around 50%, versus a historical 10–15%. O'Leary cites tanker constraints, limited refining capacity, and many European airlines being largely unhedged for 2027 as key reasons. Ryanair itself is only about 15% hedged for next year at $85/bbl, against spot prices around double that level, according to [streetinsider.com](https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Ryanair+CEO+tells+Europe+to+ready+for+biggest+airfare+hike+in+history/27205561.html) and [theguardian.com](https://www.th
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump administration officials floated/advocated Viktor Orbán as a possible UN secretary-general, possibly as a joint US-Russia-China candidate. No formal nomination or White House confirmation exists; Russia's deputy foreign minister says permanent Security Council members cannot nominate, and Orbán's spokesperson has dismissed earlier reports as fake news.
European jet fuel averaged about $196 per barrel in early October, more than double a year earlier. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned European airfares could rise 10–20% in 2027, with fewer seats as unhedged airlines face bankruptcies and takeovers.
BGood morning. It's Tuesday, October twenty-second.
BThe overnight buzz: Trump officials floating Viktor Orban for UN Secretary-General.
AOrban? The former Hungarian prime minister?
BZerohedge flagged the Wall Street Journal report. Not a formal nomination — a trial balloon, possibly a joint candidate with Russia and China.
ARight, the permanent five can't nominate their own citizen, so that already hits a wall.
BRussia's deputy foreign minister said exactly that. Orban's people called earlier reports fake news.
ABut the signal is clear: this White House wants a disruptor at the UN, not another diplomat.
BAnd Orban has the kind of relationship with Trump—and Moscow and Beijing—that makes him the perfect stick in the eye to the Brussels crowd.
AWhich is probably the point. No actual nomination yet, but it tells you how they're thinking.
BWake me when the formal note drops. Until then, it's speculation with a megaphone.
ADifferent kind of pain this morning: jet fuel has doubled in a year, and Europe's about to feel it in airfares.
BDoubled? That's not a typo?
AEuropean jet fuel averaged one ninety-six dollars a barrel in early October. That's more than double a year ago.
BSo Ryanair's CEO saying the biggest fare hike in history—that's not just clickbait?
AMichael O'Leary says ten to twenty percent higher in 2027. He calls it the "biggest increase in airfares in history."
BOkay, but Ryanair's whole brand is cheap. If they're warning, the industry's in trouble.
AThe ugly math: Ryanair is only about fifteen percent hedged for next year at eighty-five dollars. Spot is double that.
BSo when the hedges run out, fuel costs explode. That's not opinion, it's arithmetic.
AAnd he says unhedged European airlines will go bankrupt or get taken over. Fewer seats, higher prices.
BThe root cause, as reported, is the Iran war hitting refineries. Jet fuel's premium over Brent is around fifty percent, normally ten to fifteen.
AAnd because jet fuel competes with diesel for the same refinery units, don't expect that premium to vanish quickly.
BOne analyst said high prices are likely to persist even if there's no physical shortage.
ASo if you're planning a European trip next summer, expect sticker shock. Book early, or pay up.
BOr take the train, if you've got the time.
AIn Europe, sometimes that's faster than the security line.
BA post from To Piraeus on X notes the global economy has been surprisingly resilient through covid, the Ukraine war, tariffs, and the Gulf conflict.
AThat's actually notable. Five years of shocks, and the system held.
BBut resilience isn't free. Debt piled up everywhere to get through it.
AFair, but the surprise is the system didn't crack. That's a real point, not spin.
BUntil the next shock. Let's see if it holds.