BMoney Tonight, live at 11 on a Monday, and zerohedge says China's five-year government bond yield just dropped to a record low.
AIf that's actually true, it's another sign China's economy is stuck. When yields fall, people are paying up for safety, not growth.
BAnd right on cue, Goldman is out saying the property drag is even worse than they thought. Six years of housing bust, and they just hiked their estimate again.
AThat's the real story. The bust keeps grinding.
BSo bond yields at record lows, housing still deflating, and you're telling me this doesn't matter for the US? Come on, Adam.
AIt matters for global growth, sure, but our markets have their own problems. The Fed meets this week. That's what's moving money tonight.
BBut China is the world's factory. If they sneeze, every supply chain catches a cold. You can't just look away.
AI'm not looking away. I'm saying the marginal trade tonight is the Fed, not a bond yield from zerohedge that may not even be a record low.
BFair enough, but the direction is clear: yields have been falling for months. That's a signal.
AA signal of what? Deflation? Recession? We don't have hard data yet. That's my point.
BExactly. Uncertainty. And that's why money is hiding in bonds. Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin is tweeting about airborne plagues. Talk about a mood shift.
AVitalik? The Ethereum guy? He's worried about the next pandemic? That's a late-night thought if I've ever heard one.
BHe says we should take airborne disease resistance more seriously. Honestly, after the last few years, maybe he has a point.
AOr maybe he's been reading too many sci-fi novels. But hey, if a crypto founder can pivot to biosecurity, there's hope for the rest of us.
BThat's Money Tonight for you. Markets, plagues, and everything in between.