ACNBC has a piece up saying retail investors aren't any sharper today than they were three decades ago.
AA former hedge fund manager says most people chasing individual stocks and complex ETFs would be better off in a broad index fund.
BGroundbreaking. The guy who ran a hedge fund thinks you can't beat him at his own game.
AThat's the cynical read. But the data backs him up.
AMost active traders underperform the market over time. Not a little. A lot.
BHere's my problem with that framing. It treats everyone like they're making the same mistake.
BThere's a difference between a guy gambling on penny stocks and someone who studies a few good companies.
ASure, but you're describing a small minority. The typical retail investor panics at the bottom and buys at the top.
BOh, come on. That's a cliché from twenty years ago.
ANo, it's the actual behavior. We saw it in the meme stock run. We saw it in crypto.
BIs that the market's fault, or the fact that nobody teaches this stuff in school?
ABoth things can be true. But the former hedge fund guy isn't wrong.
BI'll give him this much: a complex ETF with triple leverage is a trap for most people.
AAnd he points out that plain index funds have beaten most professionals over a decade. That part's just math.
BFine. He thinks a broad index is right for most people, with a little fun money for the ones who love it. I can live with that.
ASpeaking of fun money and bad timing — different world entirely, but something is happening in the sky right now.
ACNBC is also reporting that fewer people are flying, even though airfare has soared.
BWait, fewer people flying and prices going UP? That's not how supply and demand is supposed to work.
AThat's the part I find interesting. Airlines say fuel costs forced fares higher, and passengers are mostly swallowing it.
BSo the airlines cut capacity, filled fewer seats, and charged more for each one.
BThere's your story. They'd rather fly half-empty and make more money than full and make nothing.
AAnd that's why the second headscratcher makes sense.
BGo on.
ACNBC says popular airplanes are being scrapped years early. Engines and parts are in such short supply that dismantling them is worth more than flying them.
BNow THAT is a market signal. A used engine is worth more than a working plane.
AThink about the supply chain here. They can't get new engines, so they're cannibalizing older planes.
BWhich means the airlines that HAVE engines and newer planes are sitting pretty.
AAnd the ones running older fleets? They're tearing them apart for parts.
BIt's a strange time. You've got airlines bragging about fewer passengers, and older jets worth more dead than alive.
AAnd all of it points to one thing: this is a supply-constrained world right now.
BSpeaking of supply constraints, here's a story that'll start a fight.
BA woman quit her marketing job to walk dogs for four months. She calls it one of the most valuable professional experiences of her life.
AI can already hear the LinkedIn scolds typing.
BRight? But she says people assumed it was a gap or a detour, and she sees it as the opposite.
AI'll take the other side. There's something valuable about a job where you can't hide behind jargon and meetings, but still, four months walking dogs isn't a career plan.
BNo one said it was. It's a break that taught her something about how to run a small operation, deal with clients, manage time.
AAll fair points, but if you want to run a real business, at some point you sell something harder than a walk around the block.
BOh, come on. You know how hard it is to get a dog to trust you? That's client acquisition.
AFine, retriever retention is a real metric.
BLook, she's not saying everyone should do it. She's saying the corporate world undervalues real work.
AI'll give her that. A lot of people in offices have never had a job where if you don't show up, everything falls apart.
BAnd that's exactly her point. You learn accountability when a dog needs a walk at 6 a.m. no matter what.
AAlright, settle down. You've clearly thought about this.
BI've been awake at 6 a.m. plenty. Anyway, the real takeaway is you can learn something from any job if you pay attention.
AAnd if you're trying to beat the market with a triple-leveraged ETF while walking a pack of dogs, that's a lot of moving parts.
BNow that's a portfolio I'd pay to watch.