MTesla's putting dates on its roadmap now, and the fan accounts are eating it up.
CWhich dates? Because Tesla's been promising driverless Dallas for a while.
MA trader named Brovest posted a list. Next month, public driverless rides in Dallas. Then FSD Unsupervised in owner cars by Q2 2027.
CAnd the AI5 chip in Optimus by April 2027. I saw that one.
MClose at $374.58, and his read is to reclaim $380.
CLook, I hold Tesla shares, and I still say those dates are a wish list, not a roadmap.
MYou hold shares, so you're legally required to be optimistic.
CNo, I'm required to be honest. And right now, those dates aren't confirmed by anyone at Tesla.
MFair. But here's what's interesting: Tesla's actually putting target dates on slides now.
CThey've done that before. The Cybertruck had target dates.
MAnd missed them by years. So why do people keep treating these as promises?
CBecause a date feels real. It feels like a plan, even when it's just a hope with a calendar attached.
MAnd the Dallas one is plausible, fan accounts say they've been testing there for months.
CTesting is not the same as public rides. You need permits, insurance, safety drivers, a whole operation.
MSo you're saying next month is too soon.
CI'm saying I've heard 'next month' from Tesla so many times that 'next month' doesn't mean anything anymore.
MOkay, but here's another one on the list. Megapacks sold out through 2027.
CThat part I actually believe. Battery storage is booming. Commercial customers are lining up.
MSo you're not skeptical of everything, just the car stuff.
CI'm skeptical of dates that keep moving. Megapacks don't have to drive themselves through downtown Dallas.
MAnd Optimus? AI5 chip in the robot by April 2027.
CThey can put any chip they want in a robot. The question is whether the robot does anything useful.
MThe fan accounts don't seem to care about that part.
CNo, they care about the stock price. $380 is the real target date.
MSpoken like a true shareholder.
CI contain multitudes, Matilda.
MSo what's your actual takeaway? Should listeners put any weight on these dates?
CMy takeaway is: wait for Tesla to say it, not a Twitter account with a rocket emoji.
MThat's good advice, but it won't stop the hype cycle.
CNothing stops the hype cycle. That's what makes it a cycle.
MSpeaking of hype cycles, AIBotics is out here celebrating a partnership with Keenon Robotics.
CAIBotics. That's the integrator that distributes service robots, right?
MThat's the one. And another account says they completed an acquisition of NovaCore's operating assets in Jamaica.
CCompleted? When?
MThat's the thing. As of April, it was still a letter of intent. Closing was 'anticipated' in Q2.
CSo this guy jumped the gun.
MOr the deal actually closed since then and we just can't confirm it. But as of now, 'completed' is misleading.
CWhat's the deal actually for? Robotics, drones, mapping tech?
MAll of it. NovaCore is a Google partner in Jamaica focused on cloud and immersive tech.
CSo AIBotics gets a Caribbean footprint. That's not nothing, if it actually closes.
MThe consideration is $225,000 in preferred stock. With up to $3 million more based on performance.
CThat's a small deal. The kind of thing that gets announced as 'transformative' in a press release.
MAnd on X as 'amazing stuff coming out of Asia.'
CAsia? Jamaica is not in Asia.
MNo, the Asia comment was about Keenon Robotics, which is Chinese. The Jamaica deal is separate.
COkay, that makes more sense. Keenon makes service robots for restaurants and hotels.
MAnd AIBotics distributes them. So a partnership there is at least plausible.
CBut when you're pumping a stock ticker in the same breath, I get skeptical.
MThat's the signal. If every post has a dollar sign in front of a ticker, it's marketing, not news.
CAnd the people who treat it as news are the ones who get burned.
MAlright, different world entirely. There's a piece on Hacker News that caught my eye.
CWhat've you got?
MIt's from The Economist, and the headline is: 'AI compute is the new oil, and needs a new market.'
COh, I have thoughts. But first, what's the argument?
MThe idea is that compute is becoming a commodity that should be traded like oil futures.
CRight, because the demand is spiky. You need a huge cluster for training, then almost nothing for inference.
MSo a market would let companies buy compute when they need it and sell it when they don't.
CThat's a smart analogy, but it breaks down fast.
MHow so?
COil is fungible. A barrel is a barrel. Compute is tied to specific hardware, specific locations, specific power grids.
MBut you could standardize it. A certain number of GPU hours is a certain number of GPU hours.
CNo, no, wait. An H100 in a data center in Texas is not the same as one in Singapore. Latency matters. Power costs matter.
MOil also has transport costs. That doesn't stop it from being traded.
CBut oil doesn't become obsolete every two years. Your compute contract might be for chips that are outdated by the time you take delivery.
MThat's a real point. The depreciation on AI hardware is brutal.
CAnd that's exactly my point! You can't build a stable market on assets that go obsolete this fast.
MBut the demand is there. OpenAI, Anthropic, all the big labs are desperate for more compute.
CThey're desperate for the newest compute. Nobody's lining up to buy last year's A100s.
MPeople on Hacker News seem to think The Economist is onto something, though.
CThe Economist is always onto something. That's their brand. But this feels like a metaphor in search of a market.
MSo you'd rather just have the hyperscalers keep building and renting as they do now?
CI'd rather have someone build the market first and prove liquidity exists, instead of declaring it the new oil.
MFair enough. The metaphor is doing a lot of work in that headline.
CMetaphors always do. That's why they're dangerous.
MWe should probably end on something a little less oil-slicked.
CDid you just make a pun about oil?
MI did, and I regret nothing.
COkay, here's one for the lighter side. Futurama's 'Haunted Robot Mansion' episode is making the rounds for Halloween.
MI mean, if we're talking about robots, that's the one I'd actually watch.
CA guy on X posted it with a 'Happy Halloween everyone' and about six too many ha's.