SThe Treasury Department may be making its move on AI and chip money.
EMarket feeds are buzzing about it. Proposed rules to block American investment in AI and semiconductors going to certain foreign countries.
SAnd no official detail yet, so we're going off the feed's word here.
ERight, but the shape of it isn't new. We've watched this ratchet up all year.
SIt's the quiet part of the AI race. The chips, the capital, who gets to touch it.
EI mean, national security people have been screaming about this for two years. The US is trying to keep the crown jewels from going where they don't want them.
SYeah, but 'certain foreign countries' is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Who's on the list?
EYou know who's on the list. The usual suspects. The question is whether it actually slows anything down.
SThat's the real fight. Money finds a way.
EIt always does. If the Treasury blocks direct investment, watch the middlemen show up.
SThe corporate shell game. It's older than the semiconductor itself.
EListen, I want the US to protect its edge. I just don't think a rule from Treasury is going to stop a sovereign wealth fund with a good lawyer.
SSo you think it's theater?
EI think it's a signal. It tells companies how serious Washington is, and it makes compliance a job in itself.
SA compliance job that costs real money. That's a tax on the whole industry.
EAnd that's my problem with it! We're in a sprint to build this stuff, and we keep adding weight to the runners.
SBut if you don't add weight, the other runners take your shoes. That's the whole point.
ESo we both think it's messy. Great, we agree on something.
SGod, don't sound so happy about it.
EI'm not happy. I'm just realistic. Speaking of which, Rio Tinto is talking big numbers in Australia.
SAh, the mining giant. What's the big number?
EA market feed says they're putting $1.9 billion into the Kangwinan bauxite project, replacing an older mine.
SAnd that's unverified too, so grain of salt. But the scale is plausible for Rio.
EIt's bauxite, which most people never think about, but you don't get aluminum without it.
SAnd everything from soda cans to planes runs on aluminum. This is the unglamorous backbone of the economy.
EThe feed says construction ramps up in 2027, first output in 2029, full production by 2032.
SSo a decade-long project. The anti-hype investment.
EWhile everyone's fighting over AI chips, Rio is quietly digging a bigger hole in the ground.
SAnd that hole will still be there long after the next social app dies.
EThat's the thing about rocks. They don't care about your valuation multiple.
SFair point. And here's a smaller story about index shuffling. MSG Rangers and Huron Consulting are reportedly joining the S&P SmallCap 600.
EHuron replacing Supernus, the feed says. Again, unconfirmed.
SRight, we flag it. But it's the kind of move that matters to funds tracking that index.
EMSG Rangers? Are we sure that's not the hockey team?
SThe Rangers are already in the big leagues, Eric. This is something else.
EI honestly was about to ask how a hockey team joins a stock index.
SThat would be a wilder story. Maybe next week.