{"id":"1794519890062-money-segment","slug":"fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-after-hot-inflation","title":"Fed rate hike odds surge after hot inflation","summary":"Trump said \"I want to get Cuba done before I leave\" in a Thursday interview with Salem News Channel, referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.\n\nThe US has been engaged in conflict with Iran; Trump has made multiple statements about the Iran war.\n\nTrump said \"I want to get Cuba done before I leave\" in a Thursday interview with Salem News Channel.","publishedAt":"2026-11-12T21:44:50.062Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Closing Bell","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: Trump said \"I want to get Cuba done before I leave\" in a Thursday interview with Salem News Channel, referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.\nSource: [newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Polymarket = prediction market platform where users bet on event outco (https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2120994647829053698)\n\nTRUE: The US has been engaged in conflict with Iran; Trump has made multiple statements about the Iran war.\nSource: [newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Iran = country; FJ = FinancialJuice (https://t.me/FinancialJuice/146810)\n\nTRUE: Trump said \"I want to get Cuba done before I leave\" in a Thursday interview with Salem News Channel.\nSource: [newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Cuba = country (https://t.me/FinancialJuice/146811)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Trump said \"I want to get Cuba done before I leave\" in a Thursday interview with Salem News Channel, referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.","sourceName":"[newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Polymarket = prediction market platform where users bet on event outco","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2120994647829053698","claim":"BREAKING: President Trump reveals \"I want to get Cuba done before I leave.\"","author":"@Polymarket"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"The US has been engaged in conflict with Iran; Trump has made multiple statements about the Iran war.","sourceName":"[newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Iran = country; FJ = FinancialJuice","sourceUrl":"https://t.me/FinancialJuice/146810","claim":"Trump: The US has fought with Iran at a rapid pace for the last 3 weeks|FJ","author":"FinancialJuice"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Trump said \"I want to get Cuba done before I leave\" in a Thursday interview with Salem News Channel.","sourceName":"[newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Cuba = country","sourceUrl":"https://t.me/FinancialJuice/146811","claim":"Trump: I want to get Cuba done before I leave.|FJ","author":"FinancialJuice"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2120994647829053698","name":"[newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Polymarket = prediction market platform where users bet on event outco","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"@Polymarket"},{"url":"https://t.me/FinancialJuice/146810","name":"[newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Iran = country; FJ = FinancialJuice","kind":"telegram","verdict":"TRUE","author":"FinancialJuice"},{"url":"https://t.me/FinancialJuice/146811","name":"[newrepublic.com](https://newrepublic.com/post/217941/donald-trump-cuba-2028-iran) NAMES: Cuba = country","kind":"telegram","verdict":"TRUE","author":"FinancialJuice"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794519890062-money-segment-fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-after-hot-inflation","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794519890062-money-segment-fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-after-hot-inflation","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1794519890062-money-segment-fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-after-hot-inflation and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Adam","text":"The market's closing bell is about to ring, and the big story is the Fed. Not a cut. A hike."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's the sound of every rate-cut dream dying this afternoon."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Hot inflation data hit, and now the futures market is pricing in a rate hike in December."},{"host":"Bill","text":"One account on X says the odds of a 50 basis point hike in December jumped right after the data."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I can't confirm that exact number, but the direction is real. Core inflation came in at 0.3 percent, hotter than expected."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And the Fed's own comments have been hawkish, with the market pricing in a hike."},{"host":"Adam","text":"So the question is: is the Fed actually going to hike, or is this just a knee-jerk reaction to one bad inflation print?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"I think they should hike. We've been fighting inflation for two years, and the moment it ticks up, everyone wants to pretend it's fine."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But one month of 0.3 percent core inflation doesn't mean the trend is broken. The Fed has said it's data-dependent."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Data-dependent means they should react to the data. The data says inflation is sticky. You can't just ignore it."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm not saying ignore it. I'm saying a 50 basis point hike is a sledgehammer when you need a scalpel."},{"host":"Bill","text":"A scalpel? We've been using a scalpel for two years and inflation is still above target. Maybe it's time for the sledgehammer."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And risk crushing the AI rally that's been carrying the market? That's the trade-off."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The AI rally is built on cheap money. If rates go up, those valuations get questioned. That's healthy."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Healthy for who? The retail investor who just bought Nvidia at the top?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Healthy for the economy. We can't have inflation running hot just to keep stock prices up."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm not saying keep rates low forever. I'm saying the Fed should be careful. A 50 basis point hike in December would be a panic move."},{"host":"Bill","text":"A panic move? The market is already pricing in a hike. The Fed would just be following the data."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The market prices in a lot of things. That doesn't mean the Fed should do it."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So you want the Fed to ignore the market and ignore the data? What's left?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"I want them to be patient. One hot print isn't a trend. Let's see what November and December bring."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And if inflation keeps rising, then what? We're behind the curve again."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Then they hike in January. But a December hike now feels premature."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I disagree. I think the Fed has been too slow this whole cycle. They should have hiked more aggressively last year."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And if they had, we might be in a recession right now."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Maybe a short recession is better than years of inflation."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's a philosophical difference. I'd rather have slow growth than a crash."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And I'd rather have price stability than a market propped up by easy money."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Well, the market's about to close, and it's been a rough day. The S&P is down, the Nasdaq is down, and the Dow is down."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The closing auction imbalances show the S&P 500 and the Dow leaning negative, with the Nasdaq 100 leaning positive."},{"host":"Adam","text":"So the Nasdaq is seeing some buying into the close, but the broader market is still under pressure."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And the big tech names are seeing selling pressure in the closing imbalances."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Speaking of big names, President Trump just dropped a line that's got the prediction markets buzzing."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Polymarket posted it two minutes ago. Trump says, 'I want to get Cuba done before I leave.'"},{"host":"Adam","text":"He said it in a Thursday interview with Salem News Channel, and he was talking about Secretary of State Marco Rubio."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Cuba. That's a big one. Rubio's family is Cuban, and he's been hawkish on the regime for years."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The question is what 'get Cuba done' means. Regime change? Sanctions? A deal?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Trump also said the US has been fighting with Iran at a rapid pace for the last three weeks, and that he might use military force if needed."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That Iran quote is unverified, but the Cuba line is confirmed. And it's moving markets."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Cuba is a geopolitical wildcard. If the US gets involved there, it could disrupt shipping lanes and energy markets."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But it's also a distraction from the inflation story. The market hates uncertainty, and now we have two geopolitical hotspots."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Iran and Cuba. Plus a Fed that might hike. This is a lot for one Thursday afternoon."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And there's a weird story from Zero Hedge about a fast-food chain declaring war on McDonald's with a two-dollar menu."},{"host":"Bill","text":"A burger war? That's the kind of news we need right now."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I can't confirm the story, but the idea of a chain calling itself '100 times better' and undercutting McDonald's is funny."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Two-dollar menu. That's a throwback. Remember when McDonald's had the dollar menu?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"Those were the days. Now a Big Mac meal costs more than a movie ticket."},{"host":"Bill","text":"If this chain can actually do a two-dollar menu and make money, that's a real story. But I'm skeptical."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Food costs are up, labor costs are up. A two-dollar menu sounds like a loss leader."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Or a publicity stunt. Either way, it's a nice break from the Fed and the Middle East."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And one more market note: an account called FLN Investment posted a chain reaction theory about the end of the war leading to rate cuts."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The idea is: end of war, rate hike odds drop, dollar and yields fall, risk appetite rises, inflation relief rally ends, CPI drops, rate cut odds rise, Fed cuts."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's a lot of ifs. But it's the kind of thinking that's driving a lot of the market right now."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Everyone's looking for the catalyst. The end of the war, a Fed pivot, a Cuba deal. Something to break the logjam."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And that's where we are as the bell rings. A market caught between inflation fears and geopolitical hopes."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The closing bell is ringing. The Nasdaq is mixed, and it's been a rough day."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But the real story is the Fed, and that changes everything."},{"host":"Bill","text":"We'll see if the Fed actually does it. But for now, the rate-cut dream is dead."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And that's the close. We'll be back with more after the bell."}]}