{"id":"1794419034918-money-segment","slug":"zerohedge-s-mystery-millionaire-surge","title":"ZeroHedge's mystery millionaire surge","summary":"The October US CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% expected, while core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month. The Labor Department did not publish a year-over-year figure because the 2025 government shutdown left no October 2025 comparison. Markets reacted: the dollar rallied, Treasuries sold off, and US stocks fell. Fed funds futures now price an 85% chance of a 25bps hike and 15% chance of a 50bps hike at the December 8-9 meeting.\n\nInflation is being driven by higher food and accommodation costs, the pass-through of elevated energy prices from the US-Israeli war with Iran, Trump administration tariffs, and resilient consumer spending and business investment.\n\nOctober CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, also slightly above forecasts.\n\nThe post mixes outdated data. After the October CPI report, CME FedWatch showed an 85% chance of a 25bps hike and 15% chance of 50bps — i.e., 100% probability of some hike, not 76.8%. The 3.7% CPI figure is the September annual rate, not October (October year-over-year was not published due to the 2025 shutdown).\n\nOctober headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m and core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, matching the post. The jobs report was also stronger than expected.","publishedAt":"2026-11-11T17:43:54.918Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Money Lunch","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, also slightly above forecasts.\nSource: [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/) (https://x.com/Investwithkabir/status/2120178269811298595)\n\nMISLEADING: The post mixes outdated data. After the October CPI report, CME FedWatch showed an 85% chance of a 25bps hike and 15% chance of 50bps — i.e., 100% probability of some hike, not 76.8%. The 3.7% CPI figure is the September annual rate, not October (October year-over-year was not published due to the 2025 shutdown).\nSource: [cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/october-cpi-report-elevated-inflation/), [kiplinger.com](https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/10-cities-hardest (https://x.com/buckleyjk/status/2119326644364009761)\n\nTRUE: October headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m and core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, matching the post. The jobs report was also stronger than expected.\nSource: [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/) (https://x.com/Financialgoal77/status/2120149832870318169)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, also slightly above forecasts.","sourceName":"[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/)","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/Investwithkabir/status/2120178269811298595","claim":"⚠️ BAD NEWS FOR RATE-CUT BULLS? US CPI just delivered a reality check! Both headline and core inflation beat expectations. 🇺🇸 Now the big question: Will the Fed keep rates higher for longer, or is another rate hike back on the table? 💵 Dollar bulls are watching. 🥇 Gold","author":"Kabir Mehrotra (@Investwithkabir)"},{"verdict":"MISLEADING","summary":"The post mixes outdated data. After the October CPI report, CME FedWatch showed an 85% chance of a 25bps hike and 15% chance of 50bps — i.e., 100% probability of some hike, not 76.8%. The 3.7% CPI figure is the September annual rate, not October (October year-over-year was not published due to the 2025 shutdown).","sourceName":"[cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/october-cpi-report-elevated-inflation/), [kiplinger.com](https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/10-cities-hardest","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/buckleyjk/status/2119326644364009761","claim":"CME FedWatch odds for a December Fed rate hike jumped to 76.8% as October payrolls added 165,000 jobs, nearly triple forecasts, BLS data shows. With CPI at 3.7%, Fed officials warned further tightening is necessary, catching rate-cut positioning completely off guard. https://t.co","author":"J. K. Buckley (@buckleyjk)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"October headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m and core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, matching the post. The jobs report was also stronger than expected.","sourceName":"[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/)","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/Financialgoal77/status/2120149832870318169","claim":"🚨 THE FED MAY BE BACK IN HIKE MODE! Inflation is refusing to cool down. 🇺🇸 Latest CPI data: • Headline CPI: +0.4% MoM • Core CPI: +0.3% MoM And that's not the only concern. Last week's jobs report also came in stronger than expected, adding more pressure on the Fed. Strong htt","author":"Alpha Markets (@Financialgoal77)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/Investwithkabir/status/2120178269811298595","name":"[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/)","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Kabir Mehrotra (@Investwithkabir)"},{"url":"https://x.com/buckleyjk/status/2119326644364009761","name":"[cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/october-cpi-report-elevated-inflation/), [kiplinger.com](https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/10-cities-hardest","kind":"x","verdict":"MISLEADING","author":"J. K. Buckley (@buckleyjk)"},{"url":"https://x.com/Financialgoal77/status/2120149832870318169","name":"[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/)","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Alpha Markets (@Financialgoal77)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794419034918-money-segment-zerohedge-s-mystery-millionaire-surge","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794419034918-money-segment-zerohedge-s-mystery-millionaire-surge","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1794419034918-money-segment-zerohedge-s-mystery-millionaire-surge and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Bill","text":"ZeroHedge just posted a headline that made me look twice."},{"host":"Bill","text":"\"America's Most Dangerous City Sees Stunning 931 Percent Surge In Millionaire Homeowners.\""},{"host":"Adam","text":"What city?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Exactly. They don't name one."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I looked. No source, no city, no data. The 931 percent is unverified."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But if it were true, it's a story about money flooding into the last place you'd expect."},{"host":"Adam","text":"It's a headline looking for a chart. Rich people don't move into a city without a reason."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Maybe cheap housing and high yields? Some investors chase that."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Then name the city. Otherwise it's a Rorschach test, not news."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fine. But the phrase 'millionaire homeowners' is doing all the work."},{"host":"Adam","text":"It's engagement bait. The real signal is that people are nervous about cash and housing."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And that nervousness is about to meet the Fed."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Speaking of numbers that need checking, J.K. Buckley posted that FedWatch odds for a December hike jumped sharply."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's wrong. It mixes old data."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Give me the real number."},{"host":"Adam","text":"After the CPI, FedWatch showed a strong chance of a quarter-point hike and a smaller chance of a half-point."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's a hundred percent for some hike, not 76.8."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So the market's more certain than the post says."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And the 3.7 percent CPI in that post is September's annual rate, not October."},{"host":"Bill","text":"October's year-over-year number wasn't published because the shutdown killed the comparison."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Right. Bad math turns a hot take into just wrong."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But the underlying point stands: the Fed may hike."},{"host":"Adam","text":"More than may. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says 25 basis points would put credibility at risk."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fifty basis points? That's a sledgehammer when the economy is already absorbing energy and tariff shocks."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Core inflation ran 0.3 percent three straight months. That's not a blip."},{"host":"Bill","text":"It's food and shelter. Sticky, but also lagging."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Josh Hirt at Vanguard says the energy pass-through is longer-lasting. They raised their core inflation forecast."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And Chicago Fed's Goolsbee calls the data 'borderline disturbing.' That's not nothing."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But I think that tells me the Fed is panicking, not that the economy needs it."},{"host":"Adam","text":"If they don't hike now, inflation expectations unanchor. Then you're doing more later."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Great. Hike in December, cut in March when the war premium fades."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Maybe. James McCann of Edward Jones says this report most likely seals the deal on a December hike."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The Fed's been behind before. I'm not convinced they should overdo it."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The market's pricing it. Whether you like it or not, that's the reality."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I'll give you the numbers, but I hate the policy."},{"host":"Adam","text":"You can hate the policy and still respect the data."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Then we're agreed it's a mess."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A mess with a number attached. That's the show."}]}