{"id":"1794395020071-money-segment","slug":"nvidia-chip-routing-probe-resurfaces","title":"Nvidia chip routing probe resurfaces","summary":"In early 2025, after DeepSeek's R1 model launch, US officials began probing whether DeepSeek obtained Nvidia AI chips through third parties in Singapore, circumventing export controls. Nvidia's Singapore revenue had surged to 22% of total revenue in mid-2025, but Nvidia said over 99% of export-controlled data center revenue billed to Singapore was for US-based customers, and that Singapore revenue does not indicate diversion to China. Singapore's trade ministry said it expects compliance and would act firmly against flouters. In October 2025, US officials were reported investigating Singapore-based Megaspeed over possible diversion to Chinese tech firms.\n\nSingapore is a global trade hub where companies centralize invoicing; Nvidia's \"bill to\" vs \"ship to\" distinction means revenue billed to Singapore often ships elsewhere. The surge in Singapore revenue raised suspicions because Singapore has relatively few data centers compared to the revenue.\n\nUS officials did investigate whether DeepSeek obtained Nvidia chips via Singapore, as reported in early 2025. Nvidia and Singapore said there was no evidence of diversion; Nvidia said Singapore revenue is mostly bill-to for US/Western customers. The +740% figure is from Kobeissi's own analysis and not independently confirmed.","publishedAt":"2026-11-11T11:03:40.071Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Morning Brief","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: US officials did investigate whether DeepSeek obtained Nvidia chips via Singapore, as reported in early 2025. Nvidia and Singapore said there was no evidence of diversion; Nvidia said Singapore revenue is mostly bill-to for US/Western customers. The +740% figure is from Kobeissi's own analysis and not independently confirmed.\nSource: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/01/deepseek-nvidia-chip-questions-singapore-responds.html), [straitstimes.com](https://www.straitstimes.com/tech/nvidias (https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2120460515302392014)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"US officials did investigate whether DeepSeek obtained Nvidia chips via Singapore, as reported in early 2025. Nvidia and Singapore said there was no evidence of diversion; Nvidia said Singapore revenue is mostly bill-to for US/Western customers. The +740% figure is from Kobeissi's own analysis and not independently confirmed.","sourceName":"[cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/01/deepseek-nvidia-chip-questions-singapore-responds.html), [straitstimes.com](https://www.straitstimes.com/tech/nvidias","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2120460515302392014","claim":"Our direct experience with Nvidia, never shared before: 22 months ago, we published the below analysis raising concerns that Nvidia's AI chips were potentially being routed to China through Singapore. Less than 24 hours later, Nvidia's Head of PR contacted us, directly https://t.","author":"The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2120460515302392014","name":"[cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/01/deepseek-nvidia-chip-questions-singapore-responds.html), [straitstimes.com](https://www.straitstimes.com/tech/nvidias","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794395020071-money-segment-nvidia-chip-routing-probe-resurfaces","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794395020071-money-segment-nvidia-chip-routing-probe-resurfaces","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1794395020071-money-segment-nvidia-chip-routing-probe-resurfaces and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Bill","text":"Good morning, Wednesday. The Kobeissi Letter is out with a story about Nvidia that starts with a phone call."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A phone call?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"They say 22 months ago they published an analysis raising concerns that Nvidia's AI chips were being routed to China through Singapore."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And Nvidia's head of PR called them directly. Less than 24 hours later."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's the claim. Kobeissi says the sales to Singapore were up sharply since DeepSeek was founded."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That number is their own analysis, not independently confirmed. But the underlying probe was real."},{"host":"Bill","text":"US officials did investigate whether DeepSeek got Nvidia chips through third parties in Singapore."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Nvidia and Singapore both said there was no evidence of diversion. Nvidia said Singapore revenue is mostly bill-to for US and Western customers."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But that's the whole problem, isn't it? Bill-to versus ship-to. The invoice says Singapore, the chips go somewhere else."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Singapore is a trade hub. Companies centralize invoicing there. It doesn't prove the chips went to China."},{"host":"Bill","text":"No, but it makes the reported surge look suspicious. Singapore doesn't have that many data centers."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Which is exactly why officials looked. And in October, they were reported investigating a Singapore firm called Megaspeed over possible diversion to Chinese tech firms."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So the story isn't over. Kobeissi is saying, we raised this early, and Nvidia's PR came after us."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A PR person calling a critic isn't a scandal. It's a Tuesday."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fair. But the chip routing question is a real one for anyone building AI."},{"host":"Adam","text":"One reply put it well: AI compute supply is now a question of trust as much as capacity."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Traceable provenance matters. For developers and policymakers alike."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Speaking of trust, Jim Cramer was busy last night."},{"host":"Bill","text":"He gave Nvidia a path out of purgatory. Multi-step plan, no magic bullet."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And he thinks they're taking it. He also says Anthropic might be worth much more than the price talk we're hearing."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's a bold call. Anthropic's bankers may raise the IPO price above the 70 to 78 dollar range, according to the FT."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That report isn't confirmed. But some are saying heavy investor demand could lift the valuation to 1.5 trillion or more."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Cramer's also watching CoreWeave on Squawk Street this morning. He thinks it'll be very positive."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Demand for AI data centers, dispelling the negatives. We'll see."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Different world entirely: the UK's emergency preparedness campaign is moving product."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Big jumps in bottled water, canned food and hand sanitizer sales. That's the claim from Polymarket."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Those specific numbers aren't confirmed. But the direction is interesting."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A government tells people to prepare, and they actually do it. That's notable."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Or they panic-buy hand sanitizer again. Old habits."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Either way, it's a real shift in how people are thinking about risk."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And one more from overnight: the EU has approved its first military mission presence on Ukrainian soil."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's unconfirmed for now. But if true, it's a significant step."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The quote in the post is 'make no secret of it.' That's a change in posture."},{"host":"Adam","text":"We'll wait for official word. But it's worth watching closely."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Meanwhile, the market selloff from Thursday is still echoing."},{"host":"Adam","text":"One account says the S&P 500 plunged sharply in one day, with billions of dollars gone."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Another says it was one of the worst days in history, with the major indexes down sharply."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Those figures are similar across posts, but we couldn't independently verify the exact close."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The question everyone's asking: is the bull market over, or just another correction?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"History says sharp selloffs happen. But the overnight reversal in Nasdaq futures after midterm results was wild."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Down sharply, then up strongly off the low. Wiped out the losses."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's the kind of volatility that makes people nervous. But it's also how markets find a floor."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Quick one from crypto: Ripple's former CTO David Schwartz says he sold nearly all his crypto."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Down from about 26 million XRP, 1,500 Bitcoin and 40,000 Ether to roughly 3 million XRP, 1 Bitcoin and 6 Ether."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Low risk tolerance, he says. That's one way to put it."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Those numbers are his claim, not confirmed. But if true, that's a massive exit."},{"host":"Bill","text":"A man who helped build Ripple, holding almost no crypto. That's a statement."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Or a very expensive lesson in risk management."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And that's the morning brief. Back with more after the break."}]}