{"id":"1794321821007-money-show_open","slug":"fed-weighs-bigger-hike-after-hot-inflation","title":"Fed weighs bigger hike after hot inflation","summary":"The October CPI report came in warmer than expected. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, headline consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, and gasoline prices jumped 9.1% over the year. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.7% year over year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is leaning toward a December rate hike and would consider a 50bp move if inflation comes in hotter than forecast. WSJ's Nick Timiraos reported the Fed may now face a choice between a 50bp hike in December or consecutive hikes in December and January.\n\nInflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, and Waller argued the Fed must follow through on signaled hikes or risk losing credibility and inadvertently loosening financial conditions. Higher rates, he said, are needed “sooner rather than later.”\n\nGoldman Sachs' latest Fed call is one more 25bp hike in December, not next year. Chief economist Jan Hatzius has said markets are pricing too many hikes and there is a strong chance no further hikes are needed.\n\nVisa has expanded its stablecoin settlement network to support transactions 24/7, including weekends and holidays.\n\nOctober core CPI rose 0.3%, hotter than expected, and Fed Governor Waller said he could support a 50bp December hike if inflation is worse than forecast. WSJ's Nick Timiraos says the Fed may choose between a 50bp December move or back-to-back December/January hikes.\n\nBLS data shows inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell 0.7% from a year earlier, the sixth straight monthly decline; consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past year, with gasoline up 9.1%.","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T14:43:41.007Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Market Open","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"MISLEADING: Goldman Sachs' latest Fed call is one more 25bp hike in December, not next year. Chief economist Jan Hatzius has said markets are pricing too many hikes and there is a strong chance no further hikes are needed.\nSource: [markets.businessinsider.com](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-continues-to-expect-one-additional-december-fed-hike-1036611023), [g (https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2120155858562613387)\n\nTRUE: Visa has expanded its stablecoin settlement network to support transactions 24/7, including weekends and holidays.\nSource: Visa newsroom NAMES: Visa = global payments network; stablecoin = crypto token designed to hold a stable value, usually $1. POST 2120158698278682752: NOCLAIM NA (https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2120159660833423595)\n\nTRUE: October core CPI rose 0.3%, hotter than expected, and Fed Governor Waller said he could support a 50bp December hike if inflation is worse than forecast. WSJ's Nick Timiraos says the Fed may choose between a 50bp December move or back-to-back December/January hikes.\nSource: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/fed-governor-waller-sees-december-hike-likely.html), Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics NAMES: Fed = Fed (https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2120155460418351510)\n\nTRUE: BLS data shows inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell 0.7% from a year earlier, the sixth straight monthly decline; consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past year, with gasoline up 9.1%.\nSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics NAMES: BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics. (https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/2120158787650920840)","claims":[{"verdict":"MISLEADING","summary":"Goldman Sachs' latest Fed call is one more 25bp hike in December, not next year. Chief economist Jan Hatzius has said markets are pricing too many hikes and there is a strong chance no further hikes are needed.","sourceName":"[markets.businessinsider.com](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-continues-to-expect-one-additional-december-fed-hike-1036611023), [g","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2120155858562613387","claim":"JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs warns high inflation could lead to more interest rate hikes next year.","author":"Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Visa has expanded its stablecoin settlement network to support transactions 24/7, including weekends and holidays.","sourceName":"Visa newsroom NAMES: Visa = global payments network; stablecoin = crypto token designed to hold a stable value, usually $1. POST 2120158698278682752: NOCLAIM NA","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2120159660833423595","claim":"JUST IN: Visa expands crypto stablecoin settlements network, allowing transactions on weekends and holidays.","author":"Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"October core CPI rose 0.3%, hotter than expected, and Fed Governor Waller said he could support a 50bp December hike if inflation is worse than forecast. WSJ's Nick Timiraos says the Fed may choose between a 50bp December move or back-to-back December/January hikes.","sourceName":"[cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/fed-governor-waller-sees-december-hike-likely.html), Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics NAMES: Fed = Fed","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2120155460418351510","claim":"FED COULD ACCELERATE RATE HIKES AFTER HOT INFLATION REPORT The Fed may face a choice between a 50-basis-point hike in December or back-to-back increases in December and January, according to WSJ's Nick Timiraos. Core CPI rose 0.3% in October, beating expectations and marking","author":"*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"BLS data shows inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell 0.7% from a year earlier, the sixth straight monthly decline; consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past year, with gasoline up 9.1%.","sourceName":"Bureau of Labor Statistics NAMES: BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics.","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/2120158787650920840","claim":"Prices are rising faster than paychecks. Inflation-adjusted wages fell 0.7% from a year earlier, the sixth straight monthly decline and the worst stretch in more than three years. Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past year, led by a 9.1% jump in gasoline.","author":"@unusual_whales"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2120155858562613387","name":"[markets.businessinsider.com](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-continues-to-expect-one-additional-december-fed-hike-1036611023), [g","kind":"x","verdict":"MISLEADING","author":"Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru)"},{"url":"https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2120159660833423595","name":"Visa newsroom NAMES: Visa = global payments network; stablecoin = crypto token designed to hold a stable value, usually $1. POST 2120158698278682752: NOCLAIM NA","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru)"},{"url":"https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2120155460418351510","name":"[cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/fed-governor-waller-sees-december-hike-likely.html), Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics NAMES: Fed = Fed","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone)"},{"url":"https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/2120158787650920840","name":"Bureau of Labor Statistics NAMES: BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics.","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"@unusual_whales"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794321821007-money-show_open-fed-weighs-bigger-hike-after-hot-inflation","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794321821007-money-show_open-fed-weighs-bigger-hike-after-hot-inflation","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1794321821007-money-show_open-fed-weighs-bigger-hike-after-hot-inflation and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Bill","text":"Market Open. The story this morning: inflation ran hot, and the Fed is suddenly talking about a bigger hammer."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A half-point hammer, if one governor gets his way."},{"host":"Bill","text":"WatcherGuru posted on X: Goldman Sachs warns high inflation could lead to more hikes next year."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's not the Goldman call. Goldman still expects one quarter-point hike in December, not next year."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Their chief economist, Jan Hatzius, says markets are pricing in too many hikes."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So WatcherGuru got the bank wrong. But the speech from Fed Governor Chris Waller is the one moving futures."},{"host":"Adam","text":"He's leaning toward a December hike and would consider a half-point if the next inflation print is worse."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Core CPI rose zero point three percent in October, hotter than expected. Headline prices up three point seven percent from a year ago."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Gasoline alone jumped nine point one percent. That hits everyone."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Unusual Whales posted on X that inflation-adjusted wages fell zero point seven percent from a year earlier."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Sixth monthly decline in a row. Paychecks are losing ground."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's why I think a half-point hike is an overreaction. One hot month after a long run of progress, and you double the hike?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"No, the Fed has been promising to finish the job. If it blinks now, inflation expectations get embedded."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But back-to-back hikes in December and January is the other scenario from the Wall Street Journal. Two punches instead of one. That's tighter anyway."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Markets had it above eighty percent for a quarter-point, and almost zero for a half-point. Waller just put fifty on the table."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And Goldman's Hatzius says even one more might be one too many. Pick your expert."},{"host":"Adam","text":"You can't pick. The data changed. Core came in hot, wages are down."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So because one print is hot, you want the Fed to risk a recession? That's exactly the kind of oversteering that breaks credit markets."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I want the Fed to keep its word. Waller said if they signal a hike and then don't deliver, financial conditions loosen and inflation stays sticky."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But a half-point is not just keeping its word. It's escalation."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Maybe the next CPI report decides. If it's worse, fifty is live. If not, back to twenty-five."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fine. The real damage is already in the paycheck numbers. That's what listeners feel."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Agreed. And that's why this morning matters."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Before we leave the macro picture, the crypto market itself is flat."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Scarlett posted on X that Bitcoin is just under seventy-six thousand, Ether near twenty-two fifty."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Not even a bounce. But the real crypto story this morning is Visa."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Speaking of money moving... Visa made a move that's more than a headline."},{"host":"Adam","text":"WatcherGuru also posted that Visa is expanding stablecoin settlement to weekends and holidays."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's actually significant. Settlement networks have been the boring plumbing that only worked business hours."},{"host":"Adam","text":"It's Visa using its own network, not some decentralized revolution. Don't oversell it."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I'm not saying it's a revolution. I'm saying a global payments giant is making stablecoins part of its real infrastructure."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But for ordinary consumers, nothing changes tomorrow. Your credit card still works the same."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Yet for businesses that move money across borders, weekend settlement is huge. That's real demand."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The question is whether anyone actually wants it, or if Visa is building rails hoping the traffic comes."},{"host":"Bill","text":"When the biggest card network does it, the traffic usually comes. That's the point."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Fair enough. It's a real institutional step, even if the crypto crowd will overhype it."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But weekends and holidays are exactly when cross-border businesses get stuck waiting. That's the pain."},{"host":"Adam","text":"True, but banks still have to adopt it. Visa can't force them."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Visa building the rails isn't about force, it's about showing the path exists."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Alright, it's a signal. A meaningful one."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Different world entirely: Zerohedge posted on X that nearly half of Senate Democrats joined Republicans to advance nuclear permitting."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That would be a real shift. But there's no confirmed vote count yet, so treat it as a claim."},{"host":"Bill","text":"If true, it means permitting reform for reactors has actual bipartisan momentum."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's the kind of energy supply story markets should watch, because electricity demand isn't waiting."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And if it holds up, energy permitting fights may be starting to shift, which is worth watching."},{"host":"Adam","text":"We'll track it."}]}