{"id":"1794273529924-money-segment","slug":"inflation-report-drops-year-over-year-number","title":"Inflation report drops year-over-year number","summary":"The BLS is scheduled to release the October 2026 CPI report on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. It will include the monthly change from September, but it will not publish the usual 12-month year-over-year change for the overall CPI or the core CPI. The reason is that BLS could not collect October 2025 price data during the 2025 government shutdown and could not retroactively collect most of it, so there is no October 2025 index for most series. The prior report showed September 2026 CPI up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier; core prices rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.\n\nThe 2025 federal government shutdown, from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12, 2025, suspended BLS price collection. BLS later canceled the October 2025 CPI release and did not issue an October 2025 CPI news release. Without that October 2025 baseline, BLS determined it cannot produce reliable annual comparisons for most indexes in October 2026.\n\nThe October 2026 CPI report, due Tuesday Nov. 10, will omit the usual 12-month changes for headline and core CPI because BLS did not collect October 2025 prices during the 2025 federal government shutdown.","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T01:18:49.924Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Money Tonight","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: The October 2026 CPI report, due Tuesday Nov. 10, will omit the usual 12-month changes for headline and core CPI because BLS did not collect October 2025 prices during the 2025 federal government shutdown.\nSource: [bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi-faq.htm), [etf.net](https://etf.net/news/october-cpi-without- (https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2119960893228286123)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"The October 2026 CPI report, due Tuesday Nov. 10, will omit the usual 12-month changes for headline and core CPI because BLS did not collect October 2025 prices during the 2025 federal government shutdown.","sourceName":"[bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi-faq.htm), [etf.net](https://etf.net/news/october-cpi-without-","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2119960893228286123","claim":"BREAKING: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announces that this week's October CPI inflation data will not include year-over-year numbers. BLS says that missing data from the October 2025 government shutdown \"prevents reliable annual comparisons.\" We will only be","author":"The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2119960893228286123","name":"[bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi-faq.htm), [etf.net](https://etf.net/news/october-cpi-without-","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794273529924-money-segment-inflation-report-drops-year-over-year-number","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794273529924-money-segment-inflation-report-drops-year-over-year-number","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1794273529924-money-segment-inflation-report-drops-year-over-year-number and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Adam","text":"The October inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not include the usual year-over-year numbers."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Wait — the CPI without the annual inflation rate? That's the number everyone actually watches."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The Kobeissi Letter flagged it on X. The 2025 government shutdown stopped price collection that October, so there's no baseline."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So we get a monthly number and no yearly comparison. That's a dashboard with no speedometer."},{"host":"Adam","text":"You still get the monthly change, core and headline. But you can't say how much prices rose over twelve months."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Honestly, I'd rather have no number than a made-up number."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A made-up number? They had months after the shutdown to reconstruct prices."},{"host":"Bill","text":"You can't reconstruct October 2025 prices in 2026. Grocery receipts from a year ago? It's gone."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's convenient. The government shuts down, and then inflation data gets a hole right when prices are hot."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Oh, come on. The shutdown did the damage, not some BLS conspiracy. The agency says it can't do reliable annual comparisons."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm not saying conspiracy. I'm saying the Fed has to make policy with one eye closed."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The Fed can look at the monthly number, as it usually does."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Right, because one month tells you everything. The last annual number was around 3.7 percent."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And if they pretend October 2025 existed, they'd give us a false number. That's worse for the Fed."},{"host":"Adam","text":"We're about to get a report that says \"inflation: no idea.\" And markets are supposed to shrug?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Markets know this is coming. Forecasters can't check their year-over-year guesses, so they'll trade the monthly signal."},{"host":"Adam","text":"This is exactly the kind of thing that makes people distrust official data."},{"host":"Bill","text":"It's the opposite. BLS is telling us what it doesn't know instead of faking it."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Fine — it's honest. But it's still a big blind spot at a bad time."},{"host":"Bill","text":"It's a one-time hole. Markets can handle one weird print."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Different corner of the market: Zerohedge on X claims investors poured a lot of money into leveraged ETFs during a sharp selloff."},{"host":"Adam","text":"So stocks fell and people bought the dip with borrowed money?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's the claim. Buy the dip, but with extra juice."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's not dip-buying. That's catching a falling knife with a flamethrower."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Some people see a sale. Leveraged ETFs let them express that harder."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But those funds reset daily. Holding them through a bounce can still lose you money."},{"host":"Bill","text":"They're trading instruments, not buy-and-hold investments. That's the basic deal."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Do most buyers know that? Because heavy inflows after a selloff sounds like holding and hoping."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Or they're hedging. Or they think the selloff was overdone."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Zerohedge isn't exactly a neutral source. Did Goldman actually say that?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"The post cites Goldman. I can't verify the size, but the behavior fits: retail sees red, retail buys leverage."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And when the trade goes wrong, they get wiped. That part doesn't make the post."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But it's their money and their choice. If someone wants to trade a leveraged fund, fine."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm not saying ban it. I'm saying the story should come with a warning label."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fair. The warning label should say: if you don't know what daily reset means, this product isn't for you."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's the most sensible thing you've said in a while."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I have my moments."}]}