{"id":"1794016327885-money-segment","slug":"circle-s-rough-day-and-stablecoin-questions","title":"Circle's rough day and stablecoin questions","summary":"Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares fell roughly 12% on Thursday, their biggest one-day drop since June, after a Q3 report that beat estimates but was boosted by one-time items. Revenue was $865 million, up 17% YoY and about $76 million above expectations, but included $182 million from presale of the ARC token for its new Arc blockchain; core reserve income on USDC fell 8% to $658 million, with yields on reserves dropping to 3.5%. Analysts across Wall Street cut price targets, while Compass Point upgraded to Buy.\n\nThe beat was partly driven by the ARC token presale and a lower-than-expected tax rate, not core business strength. USDC's market cap stagnated, and the renewed Binance contract is expected to pressure Q4 margins on revenue less distribution costs. Broader tech weakness also weighed on shares.\n\nCircle (CRCL) shares fell roughly 12% on Thursday, heading for their steepest one-day drop since June, after JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and others cut price targets; Compass Point upgraded the stock to Buy.","publishedAt":"2026-11-07T01:52:07.885Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Money Tonight","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: Circle (CRCL) shares fell roughly 12% on Thursday, heading for their steepest one-day drop since June, after JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and others cut price targets; Compass Point upgraded the stock to Buy.\nSource: [stocktwits.com](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/circle-stock-heads-for-steepest-one-day-drop-since-june-wall-street-cuts-price-targets/cNG1 (https://x.com/hout1213/status/2118411134252531789)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Circle (CRCL) shares fell roughly 12% on Thursday, heading for their steepest one-day drop since June, after JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and others cut price targets; Compass Point upgraded the stock to Buy.","sourceName":"[stocktwits.com](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/circle-stock-heads-for-steepest-one-day-drop-since-june-wall-street-cuts-price-targets/cNG1","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/hout1213/status/2118411134252531789","claim":"$CRCL Circle Stock Heads For Steepest One-Day Drop Since June – Wall Street Cuts Price Targets Multiple analysts, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, cut their price targets on Circle, while Compass Point upgraded the stock to 'Buy.' https://t.co/nEIM2fCBeU","author":"Justin Adolph (@hout1213)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/hout1213/status/2118411134252531789","name":"[stocktwits.com](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/circle-stock-heads-for-steepest-one-day-drop-since-june-wall-street-cuts-price-targets/cNG1","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Justin Adolph (@hout1213)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794016327885-money-segment-circle-s-rough-day-and-stablecoin-questions","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1794016327885-money-segment-circle-s-rough-day-and-stablecoin-questions","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1794016327885-money-segment-circle-s-rough-day-and-stablecoin-questions and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Bill","text":"Justin Adolph posted on X that Circle shares had their steepest one-day drop since June."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A twelve percent drop for a stablecoin company. I want the why."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The third quarter beat expectations, but the fine print was ugly."},{"host":"Adam","text":"How ugly?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Core reserve income from USDC fell eight percent. Yields on reserves dropped to three and a half percent."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's the actual business. Everything else is decoration."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Exactly. Revenue jumped seventeen percent, but one hundred eighty-two million dollars came from a token presale for the new Arc blockchain."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A one-time presale, not repeatable. That's not a business."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And the tax rate came in lower than expected. The beat was part accounting, part presale."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Wall Street noticed. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman all cut price targets."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But Compass Point upgraded it to Buy. That's the real fight."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Of course Compass did. Stock down, someone becomes the contrarian."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Come on. They called Circle the best large-cap proxy for crypto exposure."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's a fancy way of saying you want crypto but need a listed stock. USDC market cap is stagnating."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Stagnating is not shrinking. Payment apps and big banks keep adding it."},{"host":"Adam","text":"It also renewed a Binance contract. Analyst notes say that pressures fourth quarter margins."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Renewing with Binance means volume. Volume is adoption, not just margin."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Adoption doesn't pay bills if you give away the economics."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Adam, the company still brought in eight hundred sixty-five million dollars in quarterly revenue. That's real."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And one hundred eighty-two million of it was a presale. That's not stable income."},{"host":"Bill","text":"No, no wait—the presale feeds developers to Arc. That's a bet on the future."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's exactly my point: it's a bet, not a business. People buying the drop are betting too."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So growth companies should just be thrifts? No one should ever bet?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm not saying that. I'm saying this quarter didn't prove what the bulls say it proved."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The market is punishing one messy quarter. That's short-term noise."},{"host":"Adam","text":"One messy quarter after a huge run. Risk cuts both ways."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Compass sees a tactical trade into year-end. That's not a screaming buy, but it's a view."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Tactical trade into year-end is code for crypto refuses to go down."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Maybe. But Circle gets crypto upside without exchange blow-up risk."},{"host":"Adam","text":"True. But it's also tied to stablecoin regulation. That's binary."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Regulation can be a moat if you're the compliant one. Circle has played that game for years."},{"host":"Adam","text":"It can also make the product less profitable. Reserves yield less when rates fall."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Like the three and a half percent on reserves. That's the squeeze."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Which is why I don't get the upgrade. Core slowing, beat was fake."},{"host":"Bill","text":"It wasn't fake. It was real revenue, just lower quality. There's a difference."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Lower quality is why Wall Street cut targets. That's the story."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fine. The quarter was muddy. Circle is still the cleanest public crypto bet."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Cleanest maybe. But clean doesn't make it cheap if crypto sentiment turns."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And if sentiment holds, Circle wins. That's the whole debate."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Next quarter, Arc and Binance will tell us more."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Different future-of-money story: a Telegram channel called FinancialJuice relayed a report from The Information that Anthropic is preparing its IPO roadshow."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The AI lab behind Claude? That would be one of the biggest listings in years."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's the report. The claim isn't confirmed by Anthropic yet."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Still, if it happens, it's a huge test for AI valuations."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Anthropic sells safety and enterprise. Big cloud partnerships, big infrastructure bills."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Public markets haven't exactly been kind to AI companies with huge losses."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But money keeps chasing the story. That's the tension."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Circle's lesson applies: read the fine print before the roadshow."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Now you're the skeptic."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I'm always skeptical before roadshows. Then the underwriters bring coffee."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The Information's report is clear: roadshow prep, no official word."},{"host":"Bill","text":"If it gets confirmed, that's a major test of private AI valuations."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And a reminder that private money eventually wants an exit."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's the game."}]}