{"id":"1793760393461-news-segment","slug":"texas-early-vote-stuns-observers","title":"Texas Early Vote Stuns Observers","summary":"In Texas's 2026 U.S. Senate race, early returns showed Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, especially in North Texas suburbs and urban metros. More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, 40.5% of registered voters, the highest midterm early-turnout rate on record in modern Texas. The race had not been called.\n\nEarly voting was heavily urban/suburban, where Talarico was strong; Republicans were expected to perform better among Election Day voters. The race was the most expensive U.S. Senate contest in American history and could help decide Senate control.\n\nEarly Texas returns showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, with strong urban/suburban showings; the race had not been officially called.\n\nBrianna Long, 21, was killed by gunfire while closing The Pier bar in Remerton, Georgia, on Oct. 29, 2023; a co-worker was injured. Two men were charged with murder in 2025; a trial timeline isn't clear.\n\nThis appears to describe Noor Salman, who was charged with aiding and abetting the Pulse nightclub shooting and was acquitted in 2018; prosecutors relied partly on her FBI statements, but the defense challenged them and the jury acquitted her.\n\nRon Jeremy was charged with 34 counts, including 12 counts of rape, involving 21 women; in 2023 he was ruled mentally incompetent to stand trial and placed in a psychiatric facility.\n\nLarry Householder, former Ohio House Speaker, was convicted of racketeering in 2023 and sentenced to 20 years in prison; he has sought a presidential pardon/clemency.","publishedAt":"2026-11-04T02:46:33.461Z","channel":{"id":"news","name":"Oncast News","language":"en"},"show":"News Tonight","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: Early Texas returns showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, with strong urban/suburban showings; the race had not been officially called.\nSource: [texastribune.org](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-ken-paxton-james-talarico-us-senate-elections-2026/) NAMES: James Talarico = Democratic Texas s (https://x.com/WSJ/status/2117809489906671952)\n\nTRUE: Brianna Long, 21, was killed by gunfire while closing The Pier bar in Remerton, Georgia, on Oct. 29, 2023; a co-worker was injured. Two men were charged with murder in 2025; a trial timeline isn't clear.\nSource: [gbi.georgia.gov](https://gbi.georgia.gov/press-releases/2025-02-25/gbi-investigates-death-21-year-old-woman-remerton-ga), [cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com (https://x.com/Kentuckygirl1/status/2115973871107002723)\n\nTRUE: This appears to describe Noor Salman, who was charged with aiding and abetting the Pulse nightclub shooting and was acquitted in 2018; prosecutors relied partly on her FBI statements, but the defense challenged them and the jury acquitted her.\nSource: AP News NAMES: Noor Salman = widow of Pulse nightclub shooter Omar Mateen. (https://x.com/sportified25/status/2117637266340475078)\n\nTRUE: Ron Jeremy was charged with 34 counts, including 12 counts of rape, involving 21 women; in 2023 he was ruled mentally incompetent to stand trial and placed in a psychiatric facility.\nSource: AP News (https://x.com/hankqxbt/status/2117687535623192775)\n\nTRUE: Larry Householder, former Ohio House Speaker, was convicted of racketeering in 2023 and sentenced to 20 years in prison; he has sought a presidential pardon/clemency.\nSource: AP News / Ohio Capital Journal NAMES: Larry Householder = former Republican speaker of the Ohio House convicted in a $60 million bribery/racketeering scheme. (https://x.com/parodyjokerpd/status/2115364771428184254)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Early Texas returns showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, with strong urban/suburban showings; the race had not been officially called.","sourceName":"[texastribune.org](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-ken-paxton-james-talarico-us-senate-elections-2026/) NAMES: James Talarico = Democratic Texas s","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/WSJ/status/2117809489906671952","claim":"Democrats held strong leads in early voting results for several Texas bellwether counties, stunning some longtime political observers. https://t.co/iLUKd68PH9","author":"The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Brianna Long, 21, was killed by gunfire while closing The Pier bar in Remerton, Georgia, on Oct. 29, 2023; a co-worker was injured. Two men were charged with murder in 2025; a trial timeline isn't clear.","sourceName":"[gbi.georgia.gov](https://gbi.georgia.gov/press-releases/2025-02-25/gbi-investigates-death-21-year-old-woman-remerton-ga), [cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/Kentuckygirl1/status/2115973871107002723","claim":"3 years ago today. Still no trial? Brianna Long, 21, was a senior studying dental hygiene at Valdosta State. 2:30am, Oct. 29, 2023, she was closing The Pier bar in Remerton, GA. A gunfight broke out outside. Bullets tore through the bar and killed her. A co-worker was also https:","author":"Kentucky Girl (@Kentuckygirl1)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"This appears to describe Noor Salman, who was charged with aiding and abetting the Pulse nightclub shooting and was acquitted in 2018; prosecutors relied partly on her FBI statements, but the defense challenged them and the jury acquitted her.","sourceName":"AP News NAMES: Noor Salman = widow of Pulse nightclub shooter Omar Mateen.","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/sportified25/status/2117637266340475078","claim":"Federal prosecutors charged her with aiding and abetting one of the worst mass shootings in American history, pointing to a handwritten FBI confession claiming she scouted the target with her husband—only for cell tower forensics to blow the government's case wide open, ending in","author":"sportified (@sportified25)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Ron Jeremy was charged with 34 counts, including 12 counts of rape, involving 21 women; in 2023 he was ruled mentally incompetent to stand trial and placed in a psychiatric facility.","sourceName":"AP News","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/hankqxbt/status/2117687535623192775","claim":"Ron Jeremy joked on national TV that he had slept with 3,000 to 4,000 women. Then 21 women went to the police and said he had sexually assaulted them. He was charged with 34 counts, including 12 counts of rape, and faced the rest of his life in prison. He will almost certainly ht","author":"Hank (@hankqxbt)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Larry Householder, former Ohio House Speaker, was convicted of racketeering in 2023 and sentenced to 20 years in prison; he has sought a presidential pardon/clemency.","sourceName":"AP News / Ohio Capital Journal NAMES: Larry Householder = former Republican speaker of the Ohio House convicted in a $60 million bribery/racketeering scheme.","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/parodyjokerpd/status/2115364771428184254","claim":"If your name is “Householder”… Puppets gonna puppet. Arrest #22 SUBJECT FILE: HOUSEHOLDER, LARRY CRIMINAL STATUS: CONVICTED OF RACKETEERING — SERVING 20 YEARS — SEEKING A TRUMP PARDON Larry Householder is the ultimate pay-to-play speaker — to allies, a rural Ohio https://t.co/yph","author":"The Joker Police (Parody) (@parodyjokerpd)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/WSJ/status/2117809489906671952","name":"[texastribune.org](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-ken-paxton-james-talarico-us-senate-elections-2026/) NAMES: James Talarico = Democratic Texas s","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ)"},{"url":"https://x.com/Kentuckygirl1/status/2115973871107002723","name":"[gbi.georgia.gov](https://gbi.georgia.gov/press-releases/2025-02-25/gbi-investigates-death-21-year-old-woman-remerton-ga), [cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Kentucky Girl (@Kentuckygirl1)"},{"url":"https://x.com/sportified25/status/2117637266340475078","name":"AP News NAMES: Noor Salman = widow of Pulse nightclub shooter Omar Mateen.","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"sportified (@sportified25)"},{"url":"https://x.com/hankqxbt/status/2117687535623192775","name":"AP News","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Hank (@hankqxbt)"},{"url":"https://x.com/parodyjokerpd/status/2115364771428184254","name":"AP News / Ohio Capital Journal NAMES: Larry Householder = former Republican speaker of the Ohio House convicted in a $60 million bribery/racketeering scheme.","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"The Joker Police (Parody) (@parodyjokerpd)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793760393461-news-segment-texas-early-vote-stuns-observers","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/news","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793760393461-news-segment-texas-early-vote-stuns-observers","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1793760393461-news-segment-texas-early-vote-stuns-observers and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Bella","text":"Texas early voting just broke the modern record—and the early numbers are shaking people."},{"host":"Brian","text":"The Wall Street Journal just posted it: Democrats held strong leads in several Texas bellwether counties."},{"host":"Brian","text":"Their words: “stunning some longtime political observers.”"},{"host":"Bella","text":"That wording's from the Journal, not a campaign."},{"host":"Brian","text":"And this is the most expensive U.S. Senate race in American history."},{"host":"Bella","text":"Which is exactly why nobody should call it from early returns."},{"host":"Brian","text":"But those early returns are real. Talarico is ahead in counties that usually signal where Texas is going."},{"host":"Bella","text":"Bellwether counties can be early-vote mirages. We've seen this before."},{"host":"Brian","text":"No, no—look at the turnout. Almost forty-one percent of registered Texans voted before today."},{"host":"Bella","text":"Seven point seven million people. That's the highest midterm early-turnout rate in modern Texas history."},{"host":"Brian","text":"That's not a mirage, Bella. That's people voting in huge numbers, especially in the suburbs."},{"host":"Bella","text":"And Election Day in Texas still leans Republican. Rural counties haven't had their Election Day surge yet."},{"host":"Brian","text":"Oh, come on. Those suburban counties are where Paxton had to run up the score. If he's losing them early, he's in trouble."},{"host":"Bella","text":"He might be. But the AP hasn't called the race. That's not opinion—that's fact."},{"host":"Brian","text":"I'm not calling the race. I'm saying it's a serious warning sign for Paxton."},{"host":"Bella","text":"I can live with warning sign. But there's a post going around saying Kalshi gives Talarico a ninety-nine percent chance."},{"host":"Brian","text":"That's a prediction market, not an election result."},{"host":"Bella","text":"We couldn't confirm that ninety-nine percent figure. Kalshi is a trading platform, and it hasn't called anything."},{"host":"Brian","text":"Prediction markets are useful, but they're not vote totals."},{"host":"Brian","text":"Even so, the Journal saying “stunning” is not nothing. That's a newsroom, not a gambler."},{"host":"Bella","text":"Agreed. But the only number that matters is the final vote, and that's hours away."},{"host":"Brian","text":"Different kind of legal trouble: a former Ohio House Speaker serving twenty years for racketeering is asking for a Trump pardon."},{"host":"Bella","text":"That's Larry Householder. He was convicted in a sixty-million-dollar bribery scheme."},{"host":"Brian","text":"A parody account on X put it bluntly: “puppets gonna puppet.”"},{"host":"Bella","text":"The real story isn't the parody. He has actually sought clemency."},{"host":"Brian","text":"Great. Public corruption, and the ask is a get-out-of-prison card from the president."},{"host":"Bella","text":"Presidents do have the pardon power. It exists for a reason, even in bad cases."},{"host":"Brian","text":"But this is a jury conviction, not a technicality. He sold his office."},{"host":"Bella","text":"I'm not defending him. I'm saying the pardon power shouldn't be judged by the worst example."},{"host":"Brian","text":"If he gets one, it tells every statehouse crook that the price of getting caught is just waiting for a friendly president."},{"host":"Bella","text":"That's the argument against, and it's strong. I don't think he deserves one, but I wouldn't burn the power because of him."},{"host":"Brian","text":"Fair. I'd just say don't use it here."},{"host":"Bella","text":"Then we don't actually disagree much."},{"host":"Bella","text":"Three years ago tonight, Brianna Long was shot and killed while closing a bar in south Georgia."},{"host":"Brian","text":"She was twenty-one, studying dental hygiene. A gunfight broke out outside."},{"host":"Bella","text":"The post going around asks, “Still no trial?” That's not exactly right."},{"host":"Brian","text":"Right. Two men were charged this year, but there's no trial date yet."},{"host":"Bella","text":"So her family is still waiting. That's a long time."},{"host":"Brian","text":"It is. Delay like that feels like another injury."},{"host":"Bella","text":"We'll keep an eye on whether a court sets a date."}]}