{"id":"1793753097597-money-segment","slug":"robinhood-crypto-dives-prediction-markets-jump","title":"Robinhood crypto dives, prediction markets jump","summary":"Robinhood reported Q3 2026 total net revenue of $1.424 billion, up 12% year over year but slightly below Street estimates. Crypto transaction revenue fell 55% year over year to $120 million on $50 billion in crypto trading volume. Options revenue rose 31% to $399 million, equities revenue rose 41% to $121 million, and prediction markets generated $173 million. EPS came in at $0.51 versus $0.55 expected, and shares fell about 5% after hours. Robinhood Chain processed more than $80 billion in decentralized-exchange volume and generated over $50 million in chain fees in its first mainnet quarter.\n\nThe crypto drop is mainly a base effect compared with last year's crypto bull market, plus weaker spot trading volume. Robinhood has been rerouting revenue toward options, equities, prediction markets, and its own blockchain rather than leaving crypto. But expenses rose faster than revenue, and net income fell.\n\nRobinhood's crypto transaction revenue did fall 55% year over year to $120 million in Q3, while prediction-market revenue hit $173 million. The post's separate gold and Ripple headlines were not independently confirmed in this check.","publishedAt":"2026-11-04T00:44:57.597Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Money Tonight","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue did fall 55% year over year to $120 million in Q3, while prediction-market revenue hit $173 million. The post's separate gold and Ripple headlines were not independently confirmed in this check.\nSource: [coindesk.com](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/27/robinhood-s-crypto-revenue-plunges-55-even-as-trading-platform-posts-record-sales) NAMES: Robinhood = (https://x.com/Neome_com/status/2115444398200602868)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue did fall 55% year over year to $120 million in Q3, while prediction-market revenue hit $173 million. The post's separate gold and Ripple headlines were not independently confirmed in this check.","sourceName":"[coindesk.com](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/27/robinhood-s-crypto-revenue-plunges-55-even-as-trading-platform-posts-record-sales) NAMES: Robinhood =","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/Neome_com/status/2115444398200602868","claim":"CRYPTO BREAKING NEWS: Only the latest. No repeats 💙 • Robinhood Lost 55% of Its Crypto Revenue. Prediction Markets Became Its New Growth Engine • Gold Tests Strategic Support at $4,000 Amid Market Volatility • Ripple and C2FO launch early invoice payment on XRPL using RLUSD http","author":"Neome.com (@Neome_com)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/Neome_com/status/2115444398200602868","name":"[coindesk.com](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/27/robinhood-s-crypto-revenue-plunges-55-even-as-trading-platform-posts-record-sales) NAMES: Robinhood =","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Neome.com (@Neome_com)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793753097597-money-segment-robinhood-crypto-dives-prediction-markets-jump","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793753097597-money-segment-robinhood-crypto-dives-prediction-markets-jump","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1793753097597-money-segment-robinhood-crypto-dives-prediction-markets-jump and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Adam","text":"Robinhood just told us exactly where retail money went: out of crypto, into prediction markets."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Crypto revenue down 55 percent? That's a cliff."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A crypto news account called Neome posted the breakdown on X. Crypto revenue fell to 120 million dollars."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And prediction markets brought in 173 million. The new thing beat the old thing."},{"host":"Adam","text":"One quarter doesn't crown prediction markets."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Options revenue up 31 percent. Equities rose too. This is a pivot, not a blip."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Earnings per share missed. Stock down about five percent after hours."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Nice revenue, wrong bottom line."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Expenses grew faster than revenue. Net income fell. That's the part the cheerleaders skip."},{"host":"Bill","text":"No, no, wait. The crypto drop is a base effect. Last year was a bull market."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Fifty billion in crypto volume, and only 120 million in revenue. That's a thin margin business now."},{"host":"Bill","text":"They processed 80 billion in decentralized-exchange volume on their own chain."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Chain fees and prediction markets are still sentiment-driven. When the next drought hits, those dry up too."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So every fee stream is bad because it's cyclical? That's a brokerage!"},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm not saying bad. I'm saying the post sells a clean growth engine that hasn't survived a full cycle."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The post said prediction markets became the new growth engine. For this quarter, that's true."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Call me when it survives a full cycle."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fine. Bookmark that."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Here's the real fight: Robinhood built its brand on crypto for the little guy. Now it looks like a casino with more tables."},{"host":"Bill","text":"A casino with an options desk and a prediction market. That's exactly what a modern broker is."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The more it reroutes, the less it looks like a broker and more like a gambling app."},{"host":"Bill","text":"People can trade options or predict an election. At least they own the risk. That's not new."},{"host":"Adam","text":"It is new when it's the same app, same button, same dopamine. That's the business model."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Total revenue hit 1.42 billion dollars. The market rewarded the volume."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But below expectations. The market said the cost was too high."},{"host":"Bill","text":"One bad print. CoinDesk's reporter framed crypto as the weak spot in an otherwise stronger quarter."},{"host":"Adam","text":"JPMorgan is bullish on volumes, Barclays says the pickup faded. Wall Street is divided."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's a healthy debate, not a death sentence."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Fair. But my problem is they're chasing every hot fee stream at once. That's how you lose focus."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The CEO is out asking for tokenized stock rules. They're building infrastructure, not pinball."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Infrastructure doesn't pay this quarter's bills. Fees do."},{"host":"Bill","text":"They have fees. 173 million in prediction revenue. Options engines. On-chain fees."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And still missed earnings. You keep ignoring the number the market cared about tonight."},{"host":"Bill","text":"One miss doesn't erase the structural shift. Look at the whole quarter!"},{"host":"Adam","text":"I looked. I see a stock down after hours and a crypto business shrinking."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I see a company deliberately shrinking a low-margin business to build a wider platform."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Agree to disagree. The post is half right: crypto lost half its revenue, prediction markets grew. The argument is whether that's good."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I say good. You say wait and see."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Wait and see. Exactly."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Speaking of crypto, the same account had a warning from Benjamin Cowen on X: the downturn may not be over yet."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Cowen? What's he actually saying?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"He says Bitcoin's downturn may not be over yet. That's his call, and he's got a following for a reason."},{"host":"Adam","text":"A call without a level is just talk. What's he watching?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"The post doesn't give the level. It's the warning itself that's making the rounds."},{"host":"Adam","text":"So we're passing around a warning with no numbers. That's the crypto feed in one sentence."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The Fed decision looms, and you want numbers? Good luck."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I want data. A warning without a level is just mood."},{"host":"Bill","text":"He's a technician. He doesn't owe me a level. The point is the trend might not be done."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Maybe. But I'd rather see what the Fed actually does before reading anything into this crypto warning."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's not an approach, Adam. That's a prayer."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And there's a different fight in the same feed: investors in Altura allege fake bank records in a 32 million dollar dispute."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fake bank records? That's a serious allegation."},{"host":"Adam","text":"It's an allegation from investors, not a verdict. The account just put it in a headline."},{"host":"Bill","text":"If they have actual bank records, the courts will figure it out pretty fast."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Right now, it's a headline in a crypto feed. That's not the same as a court ruling."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Still, 32 million dollars is real money. People are going to want to see the paperwork."},{"host":"Adam","text":"They always want to see the paperwork. That's the point."}]}