{"id":"1793748161534-money-segment","slug":"omar-at-98-percent-on-polymarket","title":"Omar at 98 percent on Polymarket","summary":"Polymarket and other prediction markets do put Rep. Ilhan Omar near 98% to win re-election in Minnesota's 5th District, with the race rated Safe Democratic. That is market pricing, not a called election result.","publishedAt":"2026-11-03T23:22:41.534Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Closing Bell","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: Polymarket and other prediction markets do put Rep. Ilhan Omar near 98% to win re-election in Minnesota's 5th District, with the race rated Safe Democratic. That is market pricing, not a called election result.\nSource: [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/all/ilhan-omar) / [midterms.nijinn.io](https://midterms.nijinn.io/candidate/ilhan-omar/) NAMES: Ilhan Omar = Democratic  (https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2117752265616625697)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Polymarket and other prediction markets do put Rep. Ilhan Omar near 98% to win re-election in Minnesota's 5th District, with the race rated Safe Democratic. That is market pricing, not a called election result.","sourceName":"[polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/all/ilhan-omar) / [midterms.nijinn.io](https://midterms.nijinn.io/candidate/ilhan-omar/) NAMES: Ilhan Omar = Democratic ","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2117752265616625697","claim":"BREAKING: Ilhan Omar at 98% odds to secure her fifth term in Congress. https://t.co/rhdjfveXKl","author":"@Polymarket"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2117752265616625697","name":"[polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/all/ilhan-omar) / [midterms.nijinn.io](https://midterms.nijinn.io/candidate/ilhan-omar/) NAMES: Ilhan Omar = Democratic ","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"@Polymarket"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793748161534-money-segment-omar-at-98-percent-on-polymarket","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793748161534-money-segment-omar-at-98-percent-on-polymarket","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1793748161534-money-segment-omar-at-98-percent-on-polymarket and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Adam","text":"Polymarket just posted Ilhan Omar at 98 percent to win a fifth term."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's a market price, not a call. But 98 is a statement."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Minnesota's 5th District, rated Safe Democratic. The market's saying this one is over."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Prediction markets have been wrong on supposedly safe races before."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Not at 98 percent. That's almost no risk premium left."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Which is the story. Nobody's paying for an upset in that seat."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Right. And the post itself? A good check on where money sees the map."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Then let's talk politics and money together."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Unusual Whales posted what it says is a JPMorgan note. We can't confirm the bank sent it."},{"host":"Adam","text":"What's the claim?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Any dip in AI stocks after a Democratic sweep is a buying opportunity. They expect AI spending to stay strong through 2028."},{"host":"Adam","text":"They also throw in that the S&P has averaged a 21 percent gain under divided government."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's the number. It's too tidy for my taste."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Then why are we talking about it?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Because the broad logic is real. AI capex doesn't stop when one party wins Congress."},{"host":"Adam","text":"AI spending hasn't been political. It's been balance-sheet."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Exactly! If it dips on election noise, long-term buyers might actually step in."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But we can't attach JPMorgan's name to an unverified note with a cherry-picked stat."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I literally said we can't confirm it. But the market today sold AI names hard. Somebody believes something."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Maybe sellers just take profits. It's November, we're up a lot."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Or somebody's quoting this note. That's my point."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Fine. Broad case has legs. The 21 percent number? I need the actual note."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Me too. But if someone is long AI, this is the argument they're already making."},{"host":"Adam","text":"While we're on AI: litquidity posted a jab at Abdul El-Sayed."},{"host":"Bill","text":"He says he's never heard anything smart come out of the guy's mouth."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The quote he's responding to calls El-Sayed the 'Pause AI candidate.'"},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's a real policy lane now. Some Democrats want to slow AI development."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm skeptical of that. You don't hold back a technology race."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But 'Pause AI' is a position, not a joke. If he runs, that's the argument."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Litquidity is crude, but the take is: this is bad politics."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I don't know if it's bad. It might be popular with people scared of AI."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Maybe. But scared money doesn't build data centers."},{"host":"Bill","text":"No, but it votes."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Different corner: a biotech bankruptcy claim."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Green Wick Energy posted that Karyopharm has officially filed Chapter 11."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Again, unverified. But the details: a court-supervised merger with Ayrmid and up to 55 million in financing."},{"host":"Bill","text":"They say the business plans to continue operating. Shareholders still get crushed."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's the problem. Chapter 11 usually means equity goes to zero or close."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And the post says 'confirmed' but I don't see the filing on the docket yet."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Chapter 11 doesn't always mean zero. But old shareholders rarely get rescued."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The company might survive. The stock might not. Those are different."},{"host":"Adam","text":"If it lands, it's a reminder: small-cap biotech is a burn machine."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Some of those names have been rallying on hope. Reality bites."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Watch the docket. If it's real, the stock won't care what the press release says."},{"host":"Bill","text":"It'll care what the judge says. Until then, it's just a post."}]}