{"id":"1793494616094-mix-show_open","slug":"two-point-eight-million-eels-on-one-mountain","title":"Two Point Eight Million Eels on One Mountain","summary":"On October 29, 2026, the four-year running average of global surface temperature anomalies reached 1.500°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline in the Copernicus dataset. This follows several years of exceptional global heat, including recent individual years close to or above the 1.5°C mark.\n\nThe long-term warming trend is driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use. Natural variability, such as El Niño, adds short-term heat on top of that trend; a four-year running average smooths year-to-year weather but still reflects the underlying warming.\n\nA study in The Astrophysical Journal used IRIS observations of a 2015 M6.5 solar flare and found that the fractal “box-counting dimension” of flare ribbons tracked the magnetic reconnection flux rate. The authors say ribbon fine structure may be an indirect probe of coronal current-sheet fragmentation, but it is a single-event study, not a forecasting tool.\n\nDuring the January 2019 total lunar eclipse, Hubble observed sunlight that passed through Earth's atmosphere and reflected off the Moon, detecting ozone's spectral signature. It was a real demonstration of using Earth as a proxy for studying potentially habitable exoplanet atmospheres.\n\nA deep-sea survey off Tasmania estimated that roughly 2.8 million basketwork eels aggregate on a single underwater mountain. It is a dense aggregation estimate, not literally a “convention,” but the figure is consistent with the research. This is a snarky opinion about an unnamed public figure's media interviews; there is no checkable factual claim. This is a personal/patriotic statement about Ukrainian morale, not a factual claim. This is a personal clarification about the poster's own video game posts and his opinion that almost breaking a game can be fun.\n\nCopernicus climate data show the four-year running average global surface temperature anomaly hit 1.500°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline on October 29, 2026. This is not the same as formally","publishedAt":"2026-11-01T00:56:56.094Z","channel":{"id":"mix","name":"Oncast Mix","language":"en"},"show":"Big Ideas","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: A study in The Astrophysical Journal used IRIS observations of a 2015 M6.5 solar flare and found that the fractal “box-counting dimension” of flare ribbons tracked the magnetic reconnection flux rate. The authors say ribbon fine structure may be an indirect probe of coronal current-sheet fragmentation, but it is a single-event study, not a forecasting tool.\nSource: [astrocurrent.com](https://astrocurrent.com/solar-flare-ribbons-coronal-fragmentation/) / The Astrophysical Journal NAMES: (https://x.com/astrocurrentcom/status/2114716355996090811)\n\nTRUE: During the January 2019 total lunar eclipse, Hubble observed sunlight that passed through Earth's atmosphere and reflected off the Moon, detecting ozone's spectral signature. It was a real demonstration of using Earth as a proxy for studying potentially habitable exoplanet atmospheres.\nSource: [nasa.gov](https://www.nasa.gov) / Hubble/ESA NAMES: (https://x.com/quantamastral/status/2115778214568313153)\n\nTRUE: A deep-sea survey off Tasmania estimated that roughly 2.8 million basketwork eels aggregate on a single underwater mountain. It is a dense aggregation estimate, not literally a “convention,” but the figure is consistent with the research. This is a snarky opinion about an unnamed public figure's media interviews; there is no checkable factual claim. This is a personal/patriotic statement about Ukrainian morale, not a factual claim. This is a personal clarification about the poster's own video game posts and his opinion that almost breaking a game can be fun.\nSource: [csiro.au](https://www.csiro.au) / University of Tasmania NAMES: POST bsky:at://did:plc:g62tajye723r3fa4gqw7l7ql/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz7bswngfc2z: NOCLAIM None. (https://x.com/funbreakingnews/status/2116667352800546973)\n\nTRUE: Copernicus climate data show the four-year running average global surface temperature anomaly hit 1.500°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline on October 29, 2026. This is not the same as formally breaching the Paris Agreement's long-term 1.5°C threshold.\nSource: [climate.copernicus.eu](https://climate.copernicus.eu) NAMES: Copernicus = the EU's Earth observation and climate monitoring programme; Prof. Eliot Jacobson = a (https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mz6cvhmnuk2w)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"A study in The Astrophysical Journal used IRIS observations of a 2015 M6.5 solar flare and found that the fractal “box-counting dimension” of flare ribbons tracked the magnetic reconnection flux rate. The authors say ribbon fine structure may be an indirect probe of coronal current-sheet fragmentation, but it is a single-event study, not a forecasting tool.","sourceName":"[astrocurrent.com](https://astrocurrent.com/solar-flare-ribbons-coronal-fragmentation/) / The Astrophysical Journal NAMES:","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/astrocurrentcom/status/2114716355996090811","claim":"Can glowing ribbons expose solar magnetic reconnection? ☀️⚡ A new study links solar flare ribbons to coronal current-sheet fragmentation:https://t.co/t5foTA7HxV #SolarFlare #Sun #Astronomy #SpaceWeather #Physics #SpaceNews #Space #Science","author":"AstroCurrent (@astrocurrentcom)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"During the January 2019 total lunar eclipse, Hubble observed sunlight that passed through Earth's atmosphere and reflected off the Moon, detecting ozone's spectral signature. It was a real demonstration of using Earth as a proxy for studying potentially habitable exoplanet atmospheres.","sourceName":"[nasa.gov](https://www.nasa.gov) / Hubble/ESA NAMES:","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/quantamastral/status/2115778214568313153","claim":"Taking advantage of a total lunar eclipse in January 2019, astronomers using the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope have measured the amount of ozone in Earth’s atmosphere. This method serves as a proxy for how they will observe Earth-like planets transiting in front of other stars ","author":"Quantum Cosmos (@quantamastral)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"A deep-sea survey off Tasmania estimated that roughly 2.8 million basketwork eels aggregate on a single underwater mountain. It is a dense aggregation estimate, not literally a “convention,” but the figure is consistent with the research. This is a snarky opinion about an unnamed public figure's media interviews; there is no checkable factual claim. This is a personal/patriotic statement about Ukrainian morale, not a factual claim. This is a personal clarification about the poster's own video game posts and his opinion that almost breaking a game can be fun.","sourceName":"[csiro.au](https://www.csiro.au) / University of Tasmania NAMES: POST bsky:at://did:plc:g62tajye723r3fa4gqw7l7ql/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz7bswngfc2z: NOCLAIM None.","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/funbreakingnews/status/2116667352800546973","claim":"The ocean has an eel convention. Attendance: about 2.8 MILLION. 🌊 A new study estimates that many basketwork eels gather at one underwater mountain off Tasmania. A spectacularly slippery crowd. #OceanLife #Science https://t.co/1sKPvBqBEp","author":"Fun Breaking News! (@funbreakingnews)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Copernicus climate data show the four-year running average global surface temperature anomaly hit 1.500°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline on October 29, 2026. This is not the same as formally breaching the Paris Agreement's long-term 1.5°C threshold.","sourceName":"[climate.copernicus.eu](https://climate.copernicus.eu) NAMES: Copernicus = the EU's Earth observation and climate monitoring programme; Prof. Eliot Jacobson = a","sourceUrl":"https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mz6cvhmnuk2w","claim":"Breaking News! Code: UFB!!! On October 29, 2026, the 4-year running average for the global surface temperature anomaly hit 1.500°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline (Copernicus data). Next up: the 5-year running average.","author":"Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@climatecasino.net)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/astrocurrentcom/status/2114716355996090811","name":"[astrocurrent.com](https://astrocurrent.com/solar-flare-ribbons-coronal-fragmentation/) / The Astrophysical Journal NAMES:","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"AstroCurrent (@astrocurrentcom)"},{"url":"https://x.com/quantamastral/status/2115778214568313153","name":"[nasa.gov](https://www.nasa.gov) / Hubble/ESA NAMES:","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Quantum Cosmos (@quantamastral)"},{"url":"https://x.com/funbreakingnews/status/2116667352800546973","name":"[csiro.au](https://www.csiro.au) / University of Tasmania NAMES: POST bsky:at://did:plc:g62tajye723r3fa4gqw7l7ql/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz7bswngfc2z: NOCLAIM None.","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Fun Breaking News! (@funbreakingnews)"},{"url":"https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mz6cvhmnuk2w","name":"[climate.copernicus.eu](https://climate.copernicus.eu) NAMES: Copernicus = the EU's Earth observation and climate monitoring programme; Prof. Eliot Jacobson = a","kind":"bluesky","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@climatecasino.net)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793494616094-mix-show_open-two-point-eight-million-eels-on-one-mountain","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/mix","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793494616094-mix-show_open-two-point-eight-million-eels-on-one-mountain","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1793494616094-mix-show_open-two-point-eight-million-eels-on-one-mountain and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Eric","text":"Big Ideas, live. Two point eight million eels were just found on one underwater mountain."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"That is not an eel convention. That is ocean gridlock."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Fun Breaking News posted on X about a new deep-sea survey."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"So they estimated two point eight million basketwork eels at one seamount off Tasmania."},{"host":"Eric","text":"The post called it a \"spectacularly slippery crowd,\" which is exactly right."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Why do they all pile onto one underwater mountain?"},{"host":"Eric","text":"The study from Australia's national science agency and the University of Tasmania says it's a dense aggregation."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Dense aggregation. That's the least fun way to describe two point eight million eels."},{"host":"Eric","text":"You'd prefer \"eel convention.\" Say it."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Fine, it's an eel convention. But I'm not picturing a convention center."},{"host":"Eric","text":"One underwater mountain, millions of eels. I don't need a building."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"It is a wild number for a single spot. What do they even do there?"},{"host":"Eric","text":"Probably feed or breed where currents bring food. The scientists estimated and moved on."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"And we're just supposed to be normal about that?"},{"host":"Eric","text":"No, we're on Big Ideas. We're allowed to be amazed."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"From deep ocean to high sun. AstroCurrent posted on X about a study linking solar flare ribbons to coronal current-sheet fragmentation."},{"host":"Eric","text":"That's a lot of syllables for \"the sun did a thing.\""},{"host":"Sloane","text":"The gist: glowing ribbons in a solar flare might reveal how the sun's magnetic field reconnects."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Why should I care about magnetic reconnection on the sun?"},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Because when it reconnects, energy and particles blast into space. That's what can mess with satellites and power grids."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Okay, so what's new here?"},{"host":"Sloane","text":"The researchers used IRIS observations of a single twenty fifteen flare."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Single flare. So no forecast tool yet."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Correct, I checked. It's one event. The authors say ribbon fine structure may be an indirect probe, not a predictor."},{"host":"Eric","text":"So promising, not proven."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"It's a direct observation, Eric. Solar physics builds one flare at a time."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Fine. It's a useful step. I just want the next observation."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"That's the method. Wait for more data, or better, go get more data."},{"host":"Eric","text":"While we're on cosmic things, AstroCurrent also posted, \"Can a black hole split in two?\""},{"host":"Sloane","text":"No. In classical general relativity, black holes merge. They don't split."},{"host":"Eric","text":"The post points to a new study mapping theoretical limits of black hole fragmentation."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"It's dressed as a question, and the study is unconfirmed. The account links to it, but I can't verify the actual paper."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Oh, come on. That's a theory question, not a fake news alert. You kill everything interesting."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"I'm not killing it. I'm saying the headline runs far ahead of the work. That's how junk science goes viral."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Then say that. But \"can a black hole split\" is a real question, and if the math says no, that's worth knowing."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Fine, I'd phrase it as \"a new preprint claims to map theoretical limits.\" Unconfirmed, maybe intriguing."},{"host":"Eric","text":"There's the balanced take. Two point eight million eels and an unsplit black hole."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Don't combine those images."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Different corner of space: Hubble used a total lunar eclipse to practice looking for life on other planets."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Hold on, Hubble looked at the Moon during an eclipse?"},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Quantum Cosmos posted on X. During the January twenty nineteen eclipse, Hubble measured sunlight that passed through Earth's atmosphere."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Then it bounced off the Moon."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Exactly. So Earth was the stand-in for an exoplanet."},{"host":"Eric","text":"But this is from twenty nineteen. It's not new, Sloane."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"It's a proof of concept. They detected ozone's spectral signature."},{"host":"Eric","text":"From a moon bounce?"},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Yes. That's the method they'd use to sniff habitable atmospheres around other stars."},{"host":"Eric","text":"So we used the Moon as a mirror to see if Earth looks alive."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Pretty much. We passed our own test."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Good to know. If aliens ask, we're officially habitable."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Let's not put that on a billboard."}]}