{"id":"1793297849966-money-segment","slug":"trump-warms-to-canada-as-fed-decision-looms","title":"Trump warms to Canada as Fed decision looms","summary":"Yes — the broader historical record since 1974 supports this. The S&P 500 has averaged roughly +18–21% in the 12 months after the first Fed cut when no recession followed, but returns were much weaker — often negative — when a recession did follow.","publishedAt":"2026-10-29T18:17:29.966Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Money Lunch","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: Yes — the broader historical record since 1974 supports this. The S&P 500 has averaged roughly +18–21% in the 12 months after the first Fed cut when no recession followed, but returns were much weaker — often negative — when a recession did follow.\nSource: [investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/how-do-stocks-usually-perform-after-interest-rate-cut-8716912) and [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/wh (https://x.com/MainStFrankie/status/2115232101259989076)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Yes — the broader historical record since 1974 supports this. The S&P 500 has averaged roughly +18–21% in the 12 months after the first Fed cut when no recession followed, but returns were much weaker — often negative — when a recession did follow.","sourceName":"[investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/how-do-stocks-usually-perform-after-interest-rate-cut-8716912) and [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/wh","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/MainStFrankie/status/2115232101259989076","claim":"RATE CUTS AND STOCKS: Do rate cuts make stocks go up? History says it depends on one thing: whether a recession follows. The Fed decides on rates again Wednesday, so here's what the S&P 500 did in the 12 months after the first cut of every cutting cycle since 1995. No recessi","author":"Frankie Financials | Main Street Investor (@MainStFrankie)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/MainStFrankie/status/2115232101259989076","name":"[investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/how-do-stocks-usually-perform-after-interest-rate-cut-8716912) and [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/wh","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Frankie Financials | Main Street Investor (@MainStFrankie)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793297849966-money-segment-trump-warms-to-canada-as-fed-decision-looms","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793297849966-money-segment-trump-warms-to-canada-as-fed-decision-looms","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1793297849966-money-segment-trump-warms-to-canada-as-fed-decision-looms and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Bill","text":"A sudden change of tune on the trade front — just this hour."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Walter Bloomberg, the aggregator account, is posting that Trump said Canada has been treating us nicely lately."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Nicely? After the tariffs, the border threats, the whole fifty-first state routine?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's the line. Now, we can't confirm the quote independently — this account's been burned before, once pushed a false tariff-pause headline."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Right, so treat it as a rumor until a real source picks it up. But if it's true? That's a genuine turn."},{"host":"Bill","text":"He's been hammering Canada for months. Called the prime minister 'governor.' Now they're being nice?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"Maybe a deal's close. Maybe someone finally showed him what the auto plants are saying about a parts shortage."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Or maybe it was just a good phone call. One nice sentence doesn't end a trade war."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Fair. But the market will read it that way if it's confirmed. Watch the Canadian dollar and the autos."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Speaking of markets, the Fed meets Wednesday — and the real question isn't trade, it's rates."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Frankie Financials posted a chart on X: what the S&P 500 did in the twelve months after the first rate cut of every cycle since 1995."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And what'd it show?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Two worlds. If no recession followed, stocks averaged roughly 18 to 21 percent higher. If a recession did follow? Much weaker — often negative."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Well, sure. A recession means earnings fall. A rate cut doesn't save you from that."},{"host":"Bill","text":"But here's the thing — the first cut usually comes before anyone knows if it's a recession. So the market's betting blind."},{"host":"Adam","text":"No, it's not betting blind. You look at the labor market, credit spreads, what the Fed says. The chart is just hindsight."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's exactly my point! The chart tells you the stakes. If the Fed cuts Wednesday and we dodge a recession, history says stocks did well."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And if we don't dodge it, you're sitting on a loss and the cut didn't help."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So what, the Fed shouldn't cut? Is that your argument?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm not saying that. I'm saying the chart is interesting but it doesn't tell you what to do. It tells you what already happened."},{"host":"Bill","text":"No, it tells you the distribution. Eighteen percent when it works, negative when it doesn't. That's not noise."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'll give you that — the gap is real. But you still have to make the recession call. That's the hard part."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fine, but the framework gives you the question. Are we in a soft-landing world or not?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"And that question's been wrong before. In 2001 and 2007, the first cut came and recession followed anyway."},{"host":"Bill","text":"2001 had a tech bubble imploding, 2007 had a housing bust. Neither is what we have now."},{"host":"Adam","text":"No, now we have AI spending that's starting to worry people and a credit market that's showing cracks."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Oh, come on — the AI buildout is not the same as subprime."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm not saying it is. I'm saying the chart doesn't answer the question it pretends to answer."},{"host":"Bill","text":"It answers it better than nothing. Before the cut, at least you know the average outcome."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And you only know which one you got a year later. That's my whole point."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Whichever way it goes, someone's going to pull out this exact chart and say they saw it coming."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's the safest prediction of all."}]}