{"id":"1793292761823-money-segment","slug":"harris-warns-democrats-against-impeachment","title":"Harris warns Democrats against impeachment","summary":"Former Vice President Kamala Harris cautioned House Democrats against impeaching President Trump if they regain the majority, saying impeachment is “not a good idea” and that resources should go to investigations and accountability. ([nypost.com](https://nypost.com/2026/10/28/us-news/kamala-harris-warns-dems-against-impeaching-trump-if-they-retake-congress-not-a-good-idea/), [ntd.com](https://www.ntd.com/kamala-harris-warns-democrats-against-impeaching-trump-if-they-capture-congress1181957.html))\n\nEconomist Claudia Sahm did create the Sahm rule in 2019 as a real-time recession indicator; it triggers when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its low over the prior 12 months. ([congress.gov](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12410), [fred.stlouisfed.org](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SAHMCURRENT)) This is market commentary/opinion about Fed policy and inflation; it does not make a specific checkable factual assertion. This is opinion/commentary about U.S. reliability and past global recessions; no specific factual claim is checkable.","publishedAt":"2026-10-29T16:52:41.823Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Money Lunch","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: Former Vice President Kamala Harris cautioned House Democrats against impeaching President Trump if they regain the majority, saying impeachment is “not a good idea” and that resources should go to investigations and accountability. ([nypost.com](https://nypost.com/2026/10/28/us-news/kamala-harris-warns-dems-against-impeaching-trump-if-they-retake-congress-not-a-good-idea/), [ntd.com](https://www.ntd.com/kamala-harris-warns-democrats-against-impeaching-trump-if-they-capture-congress1181957.html))\nSource: NY Post / NTD (https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2115846157968490881)\n\nTRUE: Economist Claudia Sahm did create the Sahm rule in 2019 as a real-time recession indicator; it triggers when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its low over the prior 12 months. ([congress.gov](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12410), [fred.stlouisfed.org](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SAHMCURRENT)) This is market commentary/opinion about Fed policy and inflation; it does not make a specific checkable factual assertion. This is opinion/commentary about U.S. reliability and past global recessions; no specific factual claim is checkable.\nSource: Congressional Research Service / FRED NAMES: Claudia Sahm = economist and creator of the Sahm rule. POST 2115289106469015759: NOCLAIM N/A POST 21144987361852829 (https://x.com/ndati_gilbert/status/2115073309805064359)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Former Vice President Kamala Harris cautioned House Democrats against impeaching President Trump if they regain the majority, saying impeachment is “not a good idea” and that resources should go to investigations and accountability. ([nypost.com](https://nypost.com/2026/10/28/us-news/kamala-harris-warns-dems-against-impeaching-trump-if-they-retake-congress-not-a-good-idea/), [ntd.com](https://www.ntd.com/kamala-harris-warns-democrats-against-impeaching-trump-if-they-capture-congress1181957.html))","sourceName":"NY Post / NTD","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2115846157968490881","claim":"Kamala Harris Warns Democrats Against Impeaching Trump If They Capture Congress https://t.co/2kbkDsTWMr","author":"@zerohedge"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Economist Claudia Sahm did create the Sahm rule in 2019 as a real-time recession indicator; it triggers when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its low over the prior 12 months. ([congress.gov](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12410), [fred.stlouisfed.org](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SAHMCURRENT)) This is market commentary/opinion about Fed policy and inflation; it does not make a specific checkable factual assertion. This is opinion/commentary about U.S. reliability and past global recessions; no specific factual claim is checkable.","sourceName":"Congressional Research Service / FRED NAMES: Claudia Sahm = economist and creator of the Sahm rule. POST 2115289106469015759: NOCLAIM N/A POST 21144987361852829","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/ndati_gilbert/status/2115073309805064359","claim":"Can one jobs number spot a RECESSION before the economists do? 🤔 That's the idea behind the Sahm rule. Here's how it works. 1. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, proposed it in 2019 as a fast, real time recession signal. 2. Take the 3 month average of the US unemployment","author":"Ndatimana Gilbert (@ndati_gilbert)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2115846157968490881","name":"NY Post / NTD","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"@zerohedge"},{"url":"https://x.com/ndati_gilbert/status/2115073309805064359","name":"Congressional Research Service / FRED NAMES: Claudia Sahm = economist and creator of the Sahm rule. POST 2115289106469015759: NOCLAIM N/A POST 21144987361852829","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"Ndatimana Gilbert (@ndati_gilbert)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793292761823-money-segment-harris-warns-democrats-against-impeachment","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793292761823-money-segment-harris-warns-democrats-against-impeachment","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1793292761823-money-segment-harris-warns-democrats-against-impeachment and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Bill","text":"Kamala Harris just handed her own party some unsolicited advice, and it is not what the base wants to hear."},{"host":"Adam","text":"ZeroHedge posted it on X about four minutes ago. The gist: don't impeach Trump if Democrats win Congress."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And it checks out. The New York Post has her saying impeachment is \"not a good idea.\""},{"host":"Adam","text":"She says the resources should go to investigations and accountability instead."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Which is the smartest thing I've heard from her in years. Impeachment eats a year. Nothing else moves."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Hold on. Investigations eat a year too. She's renaming the circus, not canceling it."},{"host":"Bill","text":"No, no, there's a difference. Oversight hearings are routine. Impeachment is a national event that ends in a Senate acquittal."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And the acquittal is the point. It becomes the other side's best campaign ad."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's exactly my point! It hands the president a victory lap."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Fine, but here's what bugs me. She's a former vice president. She has no vote and no gavel."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So her opinion doesn't count?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"It counts as a signal, not a plan. The House members who'd actually do this answer to primary voters, not to her."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Oh, come on. Those primary voters are exactly why somebody has to say it out loud."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Maybe. I'll grant you this much: it's rare to hear a party leader tell the base no."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Grudging credit. I'll take it."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Speaking of things that move markets more than political theater, a post on the Sahm rule."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Ndatimana Gilbert on X asks whether one jobs number can spot a recession before economists do."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The rule is real. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, proposed it in 2019."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Here's the trick. Take the three-month average of the unemployment rate."},{"host":"Adam","text":"If it climbs half a percentage point above its low from the past twelve months, the alarm goes off."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I love it because it's dumb simple. No models. No forecasts. Just people losing jobs."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Simple, yes. Perfect, no. It's a signal, and signals can fire early or late."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Fair, but economists miss turns constantly. A rule that's been right more often than the pros earns some respect."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Respect, sure. I just don't trust anyone selling one number as a crystal ball."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Which brings us to the number everyone's passing around."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Altas World News says September's jobs report, the last before Election Day, showed four point two percent unemployment and twenty-nine thousand jobs."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Twenty-nine thousand? That's thin."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Big caveat. I couldn't tie those exact figures to an official source. Treat it as a claim for now."},{"host":"Bill","text":"If it's real, that's a soft hiring number, and that's when the Sahm rule talk gets loud."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But one weak month doesn't trigger anything. The rule needs the unemployment rate to move, not just payrolls."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Right, right. Payrolls are the headline, the unemployment rate is the alarm."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Now the Fed. It held rates on October twenty-eighth."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And Alpha Observer on X has the line of the day. Quote: \"If the Fed holds rates steady, inflation does not politely agree to do the same.\""},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's good. The argument is that a pause is not a promise."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And I agree. People hear \"hold\" and start planning cuts. That's wishful thinking."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Careful, though. The post says the next data release could bring hikes back. That's a stretch."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Is it? Inflation has been stubborn for years. You've seen how that goes."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I've seen traders get burned betting on the Fed's next move. I'll stay out of calling it."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Smart. Nobody knows. The data decides, and the data is the next jobs report, the next inflation print."},{"host":"Adam","text":"So watch the numbers, not the speeches. Including the ones from former vice presidents."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Especially those."}]}