{"id":"1793116705534-money-show_open","slug":"eisenkot-odds-surge-in-israel-market","title":"Eisenkot odds surge in Israel market","summary":"Polymarket traders were pricing Gadi Eisenkot's odds at about 63–64% on election morning, up from roughly 56% a day earlier. But that is a prediction-market price, not a poll or a real-world probability; polls suggest a coalition deadlock, and researchers warn the market is vulnerable to manipulation by a few large accounts.","publishedAt":"2026-10-27T15:58:25.534Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Market Open","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"MISLEADING","notes":"MISLEADING: Polymarket traders were pricing Gadi Eisenkot's odds at about 63–64% on election morning, up from roughly 56% a day earlier. But that is a prediction-market price, not a poll or a real-world probability; polls suggest a coalition deadlock, and researchers warn the market is vulnerable to manipulation by a few large accounts.\nSource: [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election?tid=682721), [mako.co.il](https://www.mako.c (https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2115098003056787751)","claims":[{"verdict":"MISLEADING","summary":"Polymarket traders were pricing Gadi Eisenkot's odds at about 63–64% on election morning, up from roughly 56% a day earlier. But that is a prediction-market price, not a poll or a real-world probability; polls suggest a coalition deadlock, and researchers warn the market is vulnerable to manipulation by a few large accounts.","sourceName":"[polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election?tid=682721), [mako.co.il](https://www.mako.c","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2115098003056787751","claim":"BREAKING: Centrist former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot soars in odds of becoming Israel's next prime minister as Israelis head to the polls. 64% chance he ousts Netanyahu. 🔗 https://t.co/RQ5LxfwiNk https://t.co/YiFrvw4QnO","author":"@Polymarket"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2115098003056787751","name":"[polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election?tid=682721), [mako.co.il](https://www.mako.c","kind":"x","verdict":"MISLEADING","author":"@Polymarket"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793116705534-money-show_open-eisenkot-odds-surge-in-israel-market","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793116705534-money-show_open-eisenkot-odds-surge-in-israel-market","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1793116705534-money-show_open-eisenkot-odds-surge-in-israel-market and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Adam","text":"Market Open. Polymarket posted on X: a former Israeli general is now the favorite to oust Netanyahu."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Gadi Eisenkot, ex-IDF chief, jumped from about fifty-six to sixty-four percent on Polymarket this morning."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's what the market says. It's not a poll, and it's not a real probability."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Markets put real money on outcomes. They're often smarter than surveys."},{"host":"Adam","text":"They can also be moved by a few big accounts. Researchers warn this exact market is vulnerable to manipulation."},{"host":"Bill","text":"So the sixty-four percent is meaningless?"},{"host":"Adam","text":"I'm saying it's a price, not a prophecy. Real polls show coalition deadlock, no clear winner."},{"host":"Bill","text":"The move itself is the story. Traders see something."},{"host":"Adam","text":"One trader on X put it well: the result may end up 'other' because no one forms a coalition."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Right. Sixty-four percent in a betting market doesn't guarantee a government."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Same prediction market, another shocker: Polymarket also posted that General Motors is leaving the New York Stock Exchange after 115 years."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That would be huge. I can't find any reliable reporting on it."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Neither can I. No filing, no exchange statement. One unconfirmed post right now."},{"host":"Adam","text":"We'll watch it. If true, it changes a lot; if not, it's just noise."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Market Open, and we'll separate signal from noise all session."}]}