{"id":"1793009054856-mix-segment","slug":"fed-decision-looms-as-ai-cloud-warning-spreads","title":"Fed Decision Looms as AI Cloud Warning Spreads","summary":"ING's FX strategist said EUR/USD's case for a sustained recovery \"remains weak\" because of French budget stress and high energy prices, even after Moody's left France's Aa3 rating unchanged with a negative outlook.\n\nMarkets widely expect the Fed to hold rates this week; the WSJ live blog notes both the Fed and ECB are expected to keep rates on hold \"before likely hikes in coming months.\" The Goldman-specific call and Kalshi's 93% figure fit that consensus but weren't independently confirmed in our sources.","publishedAt":"2026-10-26T10:04:14.856Z","channel":{"id":"mix","name":"Oncast Mix","language":"en"},"show":"Morning Brief","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: ING's FX strategist said EUR/USD's case for a sustained recovery \"remains weak\" because of French budget stress and high energy prices, even after Moody's left France's Aa3 rating unchanged with a negative outlook.\nSource: [fxstreet.com](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-french-fiscal-risks-limit-recovery-against-us-dollar-ing-202610200717) NAMES: ING = Dutch bank ING Group; Mood (https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2114647436182310983)\n\nTRUE: Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates this week; the WSJ live blog notes both the Fed and ECB are expected to keep rates on hold \"before likely hikes in coming months.\" The Goldman-specific call and Kalshi's 93% figure fit that consensus but weren't independently confirmed in our sources.\nSource: [wsj.com](https://www.wsj.com/finance/jgb-yields-higher-amid-concerns-about-higher-energy-prices-897f5458) NAMES: Fed = U.S. Federal Reserve; Goldman Sachs = in (https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2114652209463922971)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"ING's FX strategist said EUR/USD's case for a sustained recovery \"remains weak\" because of French budget stress and high energy prices, even after Moody's left France's Aa3 rating unchanged with a negative outlook.","sourceName":"[fxstreet.com](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-french-fiscal-risks-limit-recovery-against-us-dollar-ing-202610200717) NAMES: ING = Dutch bank ING Group; Mood","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2114647436182310983","claim":"ING WARNS EURO COULD FALL FURTHER ON FRENCH DEBT CONCERNS ING says the euro remains vulnerable despite Moody's maintaining France's Aa3 credit rating. With little progress expected on France's budget and energy prices elevated, pressure on the currency could persist. 🔸","author":"*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates this week; the WSJ live blog notes both the Fed and ECB are expected to keep rates on hold \"before likely hikes in coming months.\" The Goldman-specific call and Kalshi's 93% figure fit that consensus but weren't independently confirmed in our sources.","sourceName":"[wsj.com](https://www.wsj.com/finance/jgb-yields-higher-amid-concerns-about-higher-energy-prices-897f5458) NAMES: Fed = U.S. Federal Reserve; Goldman Sachs = in","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2114652209463922971","claim":"OCTOBER HOLD PRICED IN. WALL STREET EYES DECEMBER HIKE. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to hold rates this week before raising them 25 basis points in December. Kalshi traders price a 93% chance of an October hold, versus just 6% for a hike. The debate has shifted from October http","author":"*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2114647436182310983","name":"[fxstreet.com](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-french-fiscal-risks-limit-recovery-against-us-dollar-ing-202610200717) NAMES: ING = Dutch bank ING Group; Mood","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone)"},{"url":"https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2114652209463922971","name":"[wsj.com](https://www.wsj.com/finance/jgb-yields-higher-amid-concerns-about-higher-energy-prices-897f5458) NAMES: Fed = U.S. Federal Reserve; Goldman Sachs = in","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793009054856-mix-segment-fed-decision-looms-as-ai-cloud-warning-spreads","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/mix","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1793009054856-mix-segment-fed-decision-looms-as-ai-cloud-warning-spreads","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1793009054856-mix-segment-fed-decision-looms-as-ai-cloud-warning-spreads and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Sloane","text":"Good morning, it's Monday. The Fed decision is this week, and markets have already made up their minds."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Walter Bloomberg posted on X that Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to hold rates this week, then hike by a quarter point in December."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"The October hold is basically priced in. Prediction markets put it at 93 percent."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Kalshi traders see only a 6 percent chance of a hike this week. It's not close."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"So the debate has shifted. Not 'will they?' but 'when will they?'"},{"host":"Eric","text":"Oil prices are climbing, and inflation is still sticky. A December hike could get messy."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Messy for who? If inflation doesn't cool, waiting is worse."},{"host":"Eric","text":"But if they hike into an oil shock, they risk choking growth."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"That's the tension. The Fed's got no clean move here."},{"host":"Eric","text":"No easy path. Goldman's December call has real risk, and they know it."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"If oil keeps rising, the Fed might just stay on hold into next year."},{"host":"Eric","text":"That would be a miss for anyone betting on December."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure. ING warns it could fall further on French debt concerns."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Moody's kept France's Aa3 rating, but the outlook is still negative."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"ING's strategist says a sustained recovery in the euro remains weak. Budget progress isn't happening."},{"host":"Eric","text":"And energy prices stay elevated, which makes it worse."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"So Europe has a weak currency, high energy costs, and no fiscal room."},{"host":"Eric","text":"That's not a recovery. That's a slow squeeze."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"And it keeps the dollar strong, which matters for global trade."},{"host":"Eric","text":"For Americans, a strong dollar makes imports cheaper, but it hurts exporters."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Here's a shift worth noting: HSBC reportedly cut global equities to neutral from max overweight."},{"host":"Eric","text":"The same report says they trimmed gold and moved oil to outright overweight."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"That's a risk-off tilt. They're not bearish, but they're taking chips off the table."},{"host":"Eric","text":"It fits the oil story. If energy keeps rising, oil names get a bid."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"And gold? They were overweight, now neutral. That's a call that rates stay higher."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Not confirmed by HSBC officially yet, but it's the talk this morning."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"If true, it's a notable shift from one of Europe's biggest banks."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Now this one is a big claim: Elon Musk is warning about a wave of failures in AI cloud companies."},{"host":"Eric","text":"According to a post from Walter Bloomberg on X, Musk says debt markets have shut off financing for companies without real revenue."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"He's calling them 'neocloud' — cloud providers built around AI data centers. Says 200-plus could fail or consolidate."},{"host":"Eric","text":"That's not verified, but the logic is sound. AI infrastructure is everywhere, and not all of it has customers."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Some are just renting GPUs and hoping for demand. If rates stay high, they can't refinance."},{"host":"Eric","text":"The ones with real revenue survive. The speculative ones get bought or shut down."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"That's a healthy cleanup for the industry. Less vapor, more substance."},{"host":"Eric","text":"Unless you're holding their debt. Then it's just losses."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"And for the AI trade broadly, it's a reminder that not every data center gets a happy ending."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"And last week's market split was telling. Small companies outperformed the big tech giants."},{"host":"Eric","text":"The S&P and Nasdaq slipped, but small caps had a clear winning week. Money rotated."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"Big tech had been carrying the market; now investors are hunting for value."},{"host":"Eric","text":"It's the AI returns question again. Can megacaps keep growing?"},{"host":"Sloane","text":"If not, small caps and energy get a longer look. That's the setup this week."},{"host":"Eric","text":"A lot hinges on Big Tech earnings and the Fed. This morning sets the tone."},{"host":"Sloane","text":"We'll be watching every move."}]}