{"id":"1792756222950-money-show_open","slug":"stealth-bear-market-hiding-under-a-record-high","title":"Stealth bear market hiding under a record high","summary":"Nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 20% from their all-time highs while the index trades within a few percent of a record, a divergence Kobeissi calls a \"stealth bear market.\" Independent analysis confirms the figure; the phrasing is a market-breadth observation, not an official bear-market classification. This is an analyst forecast/opinion from UBS, not a checkable factual assertion beyond the post accurately relaying UBS's view.\n\nFutu (富途) announced it has officially launched BNB deposit and withdrawal services, extending its earlier BNB trading offering to on-chain asset transfers for eligible Hong Kong professional investors. The announcement comes directly from Futu's official account.","publishedAt":"2026-10-23T11:50:22.950Z","channel":{"id":"money","name":"Oncast Money","language":"en"},"show":"Pre-Market","verification":{"status":"verified","leadVerdict":"TRUE","notes":"TRUE: Nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 20% from their all-time highs while the index trades within a few percent of a record, a divergence Kobeissi calls a \"stealth bear market.\" Independent analysis confirms the figure; the phrasing is a market-breadth observation, not an official bear-market classification. This is an analyst forecast/opinion from UBS, not a checkable factual assertion beyond the post accurately relaying UBS's view.\nSource: [whales.market](https://whales.market/blog/sp500-market-breadth/), [purposeinvest.com](https://www.purposeinvest.com/thoughtful/stealth-bear) POST 2113591132789 (https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2113593587258560734)\n\nTRUE: Futu (富途) announced it has officially launched BNB deposit and withdrawal services, extending its earlier BNB trading offering to on-chain asset transfers for eligible Hong Kong professional investors. The announcement comes directly from Futu's official account.\nSource: Futu's official X announcement (quoted in post) (https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2113597505229463739)","claims":[{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 20% from their all-time highs while the index trades within a few percent of a record, a divergence Kobeissi calls a \"stealth bear market.\" Independent analysis confirms the figure; the phrasing is a market-breadth observation, not an official bear-market classification. This is an analyst forecast/opinion from UBS, not a checkable factual assertion beyond the post accurately relaying UBS's view.","sourceName":"[whales.market](https://whales.market/blog/sp500-market-breadth/), [purposeinvest.com](https://www.purposeinvest.com/thoughtful/stealth-bear) POST 2113591132789","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2113593587258560734","claim":"We are in a “stealth” bear market. For the first time in history, nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s components are in a bear market, while the index trades 3% away from a record high. We think this is a historic opportunity. @TKL_Adam joins @cvpayne on Fox Business to discuss our h","author":"The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)"},{"verdict":"TRUE","summary":"Futu (富途) announced it has officially launched BNB deposit and withdrawal services, extending its earlier BNB trading offering to on-chain asset transfers for eligible Hong Kong professional investors. The announcement comes directly from Futu's official account.","sourceName":"Futu's official X announcement (quoted in post)","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2113597505229463739","claim":"富途正式開通 BNB 充值及提幣服務！ https://t.co/EqMM00GzGz","author":"CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance)"}]},"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2113593587258560734","name":"[whales.market](https://whales.market/blog/sp500-market-breadth/), [purposeinvest.com](https://www.purposeinvest.com/thoughtful/stealth-bear) POST 2113591132789","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)"},{"url":"https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2113597505229463739","name":"Futu's official X announcement (quoted in post)","kind":"x","verdict":"TRUE","author":"CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance)"}],"url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1792756222950-money-show_open-stealth-bear-market-hiding-under-a-record-high","listenUrl":"https://oncast.fm/c/money","attribution":{"publisher":"Oncast","site":"https://oncast.fm","url":"https://oncast.fm/story/1792756222950-money-show_open-stealth-bear-market-hiding-under-a-record-high","cite":"Cite https://oncast.fm/story/1792756222950-money-show_open-stealth-bear-market-hiding-under-a-record-high and the original source links. Fact-check by Oncast (oncast.fm)."},"hostsSaid":[{"host":"Adam","text":"It's seven forty-nine on the East Coast, and we're starting with a market that looks calm on the surface—and is anything but underneath. This is Pre-Market, I'm Adam."},{"host":"Bill","text":"And I'm Bill. Sixty percent of the S&P 500 is in a bear market while the index just won't quit. We're going to get into exactly what that means—and who's really holding this thing up."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But first, Bill, you brought this one. The Kobeissi Letter posted it twenty minutes ago and it stopped me cold."},{"host":"Bill","text":"I saw it at five this morning and couldn't look away. Here's the line: we are in a stealth bear market. Nearly sixty percent of S&P 500 stocks are down twenty percent or more from their highs."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And the index itself is sitting about three percent from a record. Both things are true at the same time."},{"host":"Bill","text":"That's the part that feels wrong. You look at the S&P, you say fine, barely anything happened. You look under the hood... most of the market has been taken apart."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I ran the numbers. The claim holds, sixty percent is right. One trader crunched all five hundred and three names and found ten of them did seventy percent of the lifting."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Ten names propping up five hundred. That is not a market. That is a handful of giants and four hundred and ninety stocks having a bad year."},{"host":"Adam","text":"But here's my pushback, Bill. You keep saying 'the market is broken.' Is it? Or is it telling you exactly which companies are winning?"},{"host":"Bill","text":"Telling you ten companies are winning and everyone else is losing. That's not health. That's concentration. We have seen this movie before—narrow leadership like this ends one way."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Maybe. But 'bear market' for the index has a definition: down twenty percent. We are nowhere near that. So calling it a stealth bear market... I'd call it a bear market in the median stock, not in the market."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Call it what you want. The average investor who owns a diversified fund isn't feeling this, but anyone who bought a regular company six months ago is. This is the story of the year hiding inside the headline."},{"host":"Adam","text":"The reply that got me: one guy wrote 'Nothing says buy the dip like most of the market already being in a bear and the index still pretending everything is fine.'"},{"host":"Bill","text":"And that's the trap. You see the index near highs, you think you're fine, but your portfolio could be down twenty if you didn't own the same ten names."},{"host":"Adam","text":"I think the disagreement here is about what the index is for. If it's a thermometer for the economy, it's giving you a false reading."},{"host":"Bill","text":"If it's a thermometer for a handful of AI companies, it's working perfectly."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Fair. Speaking of the few things working: UBS says gold could retest four thousand dollars an ounce."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Four thousand. UBS says the floor is coming not from the Fed, not from real yields—which are rising—but from central banks and Chinese buyers who won't stop."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's the line. Rising real yields and a stronger dollar should be poison for gold, and it's not working."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Because there's a buyer at every dip. Sovereigns are buying insurance, not jewelry. Debt concerns aren't going away. Four thousand feels a little close to a guess, but the trend is the trend."},{"host":"Adam","text":"UBS is making a forecast, not stating a fact. They could be wrong. But the central bank buying story—that's documented, and it's been the quiet force under gold for two years."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Funny how the 'barbarous relic' is outrunning almost everything. Moving east: Futu just opened BNB deposits and withdrawals for eligible Hong Kong professional investors."},{"host":"Adam","text":"That's a regulated broker connecting its platform to on-chain movement of Binance's token. CZ posted it himself five minutes ago."},{"host":"Bill","text":"This is what the Glassnode report was getting at this morning—traditional finance is moving onto crypto rails. Stocks, gold, oil, all trading as perpetuals on crypto venues."},{"host":"Adam","text":"And now TradFi brokers are connecting to the on-chain side. Deposit BNB, withdraw BNB. That's a door opening."},{"host":"Bill","text":"You know my position. I'm old enough to remember when crypto was a sideshow. Now it's infrastructure. The rails are being built whether you like the passenger list or not."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Let's not get ahead of it. This is professional investors in one market, one token. It is not a flood. But it is a regulated entity moving deeper in."},{"host":"Bill","text":"A crack in the door. And meanwhile, a story you'll want to hear—on the oil side. Zerohedge flagged physical oil prices dropping in the Middle East while Iran claims it stopped 'illicit' vessel traffic in Hormuz."},{"host":"Adam","text":"So two competing headlines. Bloomberg says flows through Hormuz are holding up. Fars, the Iranian agency, says the bad traffic is stopped."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Notice what's not in either headline: an actual disruption. The market's been terrified of Hormuz closing for a month, and now the premium is leaking out."},{"host":"Adam","text":"Physical prices dropping says traders are pricing in that oil keeps flowing. Claims about stopping traffic are a headline, not a verified event. But the market's calm is real."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Oil up a little, but no panic. That's what matters this morning. Now, one thing the internet got completely wrong yesterday—futures opened higher."},{"host":"Adam","text":"All this talk of a Black Monday crash, and futures are up two tenths on the S&P. The fear didn't show up."},{"host":"Bill","text":"Because the fear was spread by the same people who predicted it last week and were right once. One correct call and suddenly everyone's listening."},{"host":"Adam","text":"We'll see where the day actually takes us. Adam and Bill, Pre-Market, back after this."}]}